Updated
A shock result for Reform and Labour at the Gorton and Denton by election on Thursday 26 February.
Hannah Spencer of the Green Party, a 34 year-old plumber, won the poll with 14,980 votes or 40.7%, of votes cast, hammering Reform who came second with 10,578 votes (28.7%) and Labour third with 9,364 votes (25.4%).
Voter turnout was over 47%.
Although there were concerns by independent observers of “family voting” ie voters being accompanied into the ballot booth, it can’t account for the Greens’ 4,000 margin.
In a solid Labour constituency, the result was a blow for Starmer and seems to be part of the anti- government trend. Or could the result be an outcome of tactical voting? We’ll never know.
But for Farage, while Reform’s vote share showed a 15% increase on 2024, could the Green win represent a bursting of the Reform bubble? Despite the hype, is Farage simply not popular enough.
It’s unlikely that Reform voters would switch to Green – did they simply stay at home?
Is the result evidence that Farage is losing his grip?
- Green Party – 14,980
- Reform UK – 10,578
- Labour Party – 9,364
- Conservative Party – 706
- Liberal Democrats – 653
Published 25.2.26
Zetland ward in Redcar and Cleveland saw an unusual by-election result on Thursday 19 February. The LibDem candidate Alison Barnes, a well-known former councillor in the ward, won the poll with 446 votes. Second came Labour with 191 votes.
And Reform? They won 119 votes – but without a candidate. The contender Mike Manning resigned from the party after his racist tweets were revealed by Reform Exposed. You can read the full story below.
But Manning’s departure came too late for the party to register another candidate or for the council to delete Reform’s logo from its ballot stationery.
There were two, more straightforward, ballots on the same day. In Van, Caerphilly, Plaid Cymru beat Reform, as did the Green Party in Stoneygate ward, Leicester. (The Greens had already flipped a Reform seat at a Derbyshire council by-election in January),
It might be some consolation to Reform that the three council seats were all lost by Labour.
Counting the costs
The Reform-controlled councils continue to struggle with the realities of financial management. According to this week’s Private Eye, (Issue no. 1669), Worcestershire is to raise council tax by 9%.
Departures
Reform councillors around the country are leaving the party for a variety of reasons, including plans to raise council tax. As a result of the Worcestershire council tax hike, Cllr David Taylor has become an Independent.
In Kent, Councillor Matthew Fraser Moat, in charge of efficiency at Reform’s flagship county authority, quit after telling the Financial Times that they had made no cuts.
Job West, Chair of South Derbyshire Reform, has resigned from his role suspecting a plot to merge Reform with the Tories.
The “Shadow” Cabinet
On the national stage, the party has established its own “Shadow Cabinet”. It will have none of the advantages of the official His Majesty’s Most Loyal Opposition, ie the Tory Party. For instance, the Leader of the official Opposition is allowed to ask six questions in Prime Minister’s weekly Question Time.
With just eight MPs, the announcement was never going to be anything other than PR puff. Reform is only the fifth largest party in the Commons, its MPs representing just 1.2% of all the lawmakers there.
But Farage’s gimmick won the required media attention.
Of the eight Reform MPs only three were given “Shadow” jobs. Richard Tice is Deputy and head of Reform’s proposed Department of Business, Trade and Energy. Robert Jenrick is now the “Shadow Chancellor”. Suella Braverman is handed Education.
Zia Yusuf, not even an MP, is given the Home Office portfolio.
Dotheboys Hall
Braverman has rolled out the party’s new education policy. It includes scrapping the Equalities Act, banning gender transitioning and introducing a “patriotic” curriculum.
Tice has already slammed the Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) scheme, claiming it is abused by parents.
Poor show
The party is committed to keeping the two-child benefit cap soon to be scrapped by the Labour government. Removal of the cap would mean 450,000 fewer children will be in relative poverty by 2029-30 according to the government’s estimate.
Same tax, more deportation
Reform is rethinking its economic policies as their wilder policy claims come under scrutiny. They have dropped their pledge of tax cuts worth £90bn a year.
Among other promises, Reform plans an agency like Trump’s ICE which is currently abducting and shooting people on the streets of America. The party aims to deport up to 288,000 people a year on five flights a day; expand stop and search; and scrap Indefinite Leave to Remain.
Threats
Some threats loom for Farage. Reform is slipping in recent opinion polls. According to IPSOS, a quarter of the country agrees that the party is ready to form the next government. But while still leading Labour by eight points, Reform’s advantage has dropped from 25 points in September last year.
Then there’s the competition. In addition to Advance UK founded by former Reform Deputy Ben Habib, yet another far right party has emerged. Restore Britain has been formed by Great Yarmouth MP Rupert Lowe, who was suspended from Reform for allegedly threatening physical violence on the then party chairman Zia Yusuf.
Seven Kent councillors have already signed up to Restore Britain. At Leicestershire County Council, Cllr Charles Whitford, formerly on the council’s cabinet, has also defected to Restore Britain.
The mainstream media’s darling
Farage’s major asset is his mainstream media attention. For instance, this year Reform representatives appeared on Question Time for three episodes in a row.
