Independent economic research by Frontier Economics projects a transformative 0.50% boost to the North East per year via reinstated EU membership. In the longer-term, GDP growth of £92bn would be spread across UK’s nations and regions but the North East could see growth of at least £216mn per year.
Previous Best for Britain research found that a majority of voters (53%) in the North of England would support UK membership of the EU, with just a third (33%) opposed. After Andy Burnham pledged “good growth in every postcode”, campaigners stress he must prioritise genuine economic improvement, only available via EU membership.
The North East economy, and the European Union
A boost of at least £216mn could be injected into England’s North East economy per year, the equivalent to a Gross Value Added (GVA) increase of at least 0.50% via UK’s re-entry to the European Union (EU), new independent econometric research has suggested.
The new study, modelling the key benefits of membership, was commissioned by Best for Britain and carried out by Frontier Economics. It assesses the impact of closer UK-EU integration, the regional effects for local economies and the effect of US tariffs being imposed by Donald Trump. Under each of the scenarios, exposure to a specific change in trade costs resulting from tariffs and/or regulatory alignment reflects the mix of economic activities that take place in England’s North East.
Reinstated EU membership and the resulting economic upswing could recoup at least two-thirds and up to 90% of the economic loss inflicted by Brexit that has damaged local economies across the UK including the North East.
The case for European Union membership
The economic case for EU membership is clear, with independent research finding the region would see a GVA boost of 0.50% under a conservative estimate of the benefits of full EU membership. This scenario far outpaces the estimated gains on offer from a food and drink deal alone (0.05%) or a stand-alone customs union (0.12%). Only full membership delivers deeper trade, stronger investment, and critically for businesses in the North East, a shield against the damaging impact of US tariffs.
It comes after the polling by YouGov, commissioned by Best for Britain, found public levels of support for the EU which progressive parties can use to galvanise voter backing by making the case for the UK’s EU membership. In the North of England, support for the UK government’s current approach to UK-EU relations is shallow: less than a fifth (18%) express “strong” support, while over twice that number (42%) say they “somewhat support” the strategy.
There is widespread discontent with the status quo in UK-EU relations, and active opposition to further loosening ties with the EU amongst Northern voters. Overall, only three in ten voters (29%) support keeping the UK-EU relationship as it is now, and over half (57%) oppose further divergence from the EU.
“Good growth in every postcode”
Campaigners are now urging Prime Minister Andy Burnham – who has pledged to deliver “good growth in every postcode” – to signal the UK’s intent to renew EU membership to boost economic growth in the North East and across the UK, shield local economies from Trump’s hostile and chaotic tariff policy, and fund vital public services relied on to keep the population of the UK safe and healthy.
Naomi Smith, Chief Executive of Best for Britain, said:
“With its Roman ruins and historic castles, the North East of England is also home to innovative green energy companies, thriving universities, and boasts the Angel of the North.
“But after ten years of sky-high inflation, soaring bills and a cost-of-living crisis hammering hard-working families, the region is still punching far below its weight.
“Both the public and the data are clear: as this research sets out, EU membership is the quickest and the most popular way to get Britain growing again – and, as Prime Minister, Andy Burnham now has a chance to transform the fortunes of the North East.”
Douglas Doherty, Managing Director at DACS Audio, said:
“Our trade with the EU has been cut to pretty much zero since Brexit as a result of unclear and burdensome regulations.
“Closer cooperation and alignment with Europe would help unblock this costly log jam that has already damaged my business; we need to get our products back into the market where they belong.”
Note: Frontier Economics used a New Quantitative Trade Model (NQTM), which is an econometric gravity model that estimates effects on trade, output and prices based on changes to tariff and non-tariff barriers. The report uses estimates of regional economic activity to give effects at a regional or national level.
This report is based on a media release from Best for Britain.
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