To quote Elizabeth Barrett Browning (sonnet 43) “Let me count the ways”
Today, The European Union is the largest trade block in the world. It is the world’s biggest exporter of manufactured goods and services, and the biggest import market for over 100 countries. Free trade among its members was one of the EU’s founding principles. EU exports of goods represented 15% of global exports and EU imports of goods 14%, home to 450 million people.
1/ The UK economy
It’s in the toilet relative to where it might potentially be. Most recently Aston University’s Business School published a paper outlining that our exports have fallen by 27% and imports by 32% with the EU. The longer this continues the greater our loss. Sadly, given world conditions there’s very little we can do to totally fill the gap with trade with the rest of the world. Even if we rejoined tomorrow, we’d have to be very competitive to gain that EU trade back. It’s still worth doing but will take time, energy and determination.
To see how important UK-EU trade is, a deal with the USA whose likely impact of would need to be multiplied up to five times in order to fill the gap from reduced trade with the EU. There are not five USAs in the world.
2/ Tax receipts
Every year the estimate is that we’ve lost about £40 billion in tax receipts on the £100 billion that the economy would have had from trade with the EU. In fact, those numbers would be higher now as the economy would have grown over the nearly five years since. That’s a lot of funding (minimum £200bn) for the NHS, children, education, pensioners, infrastructure etc sacrificed.
3/ Our daily shop
The UK is the world’s third largest net importer of food and drink Our supermarkets are struggling even now to get in the freshest supplies from the EU from where we import about 30% of our food (2020). However, Britain imports nearly half of its fresh vegetables and the majority of its fruit, both mainly from the EU. The future is bleak in regard of fruit and vegetables and the government knows this. Hence, they’ve delayed for the sixth time the imposition of the import controls required by the WTO for fear of what would happen to supply and prices for fruit, vegetables and other products. Locality matters especially during times of conflict where long supply chains have much greater risk.
4/ Economies of scale
Much of the administration of countries and their trade is best done under one roof, so to speak. There are real economies of scale involved. For example, managing sanctions is centralised within the EU. Of course, the UK has to run its own sanctions regime and there have been questions raised as to the required personnel, associated costs and its effectiveness. With regard to imports the UK is meant to run its own system. There are real costs involved as no longer does the EU ensure that food being exported from its region to the UK is of a particular quality. That leaves the door open for exploitation by bad actors. Given this it’s a miracle that no one has been poisoned, yet. One of the reasons the cost of national debt is so high is that the UK had to do it for itself. EU countries were able to access funds at lower cost simply due to economies of scale and sharing those costs.
5/ Our relationships and over 70 years of peace
Politically and socially, we are closest to other European countries. The UK is a minnow in the world. If we chose a group to which we wish to align our safety, our rights, our democracy then as Mike Galsworthy, Chair of European Movement UK, has said, “the multi-polar complex democracy model with people working together with collaborative politics in Europe and within the EU … aligns best with where Brits want to be.” If we have more in common as humans than not, then that is doubly or even more true of the UK and the countries of the EU.
We are also linked in familial relationships most with other European countries. Our history links us and the last 70 odd years of peace links us. We have similar social mores far more than with China, India, and even the USA. We worked together highly successfully within the EU for five decades taking an idea from inception to a grouping of nearly 500 million people. That is an amazing success for a project. There is still more to do and the EU itself is less able without the UK. There is a place for the UK that will give value to the rest of the EU.
Our instincts are European and socialist in nature, not elitist. The NHS is an expression of that attitude where no one is turned away from healthcare because they cannot afford it. That approach is European in nature. It is certainly not an American approach. We wish to help those less well off. We are one of the most giving nations in the world, or we were. We don’t like to see certain areas of the UK doing badly because the funding is not available to remedy their needs.
6/ Our politics
It is becoming clearer over recent years that there’s a plurality of political views within the UK. If we wish a democracy which reflects that then it seems likely that we will need to move to a political model closer to that prevalent within the EU countries. The two-party system of the USA or the one party model of China and other areas is not suitable any longer within the UK. Our alignment with the EU in this area has happened even if it’s not a formal one yet. It merely needs acknowledgment.
7/ Our future
The world has changed substantially since the empire days. We live in a world where sustainability, green issues, the regulation of companies larger than ourselves, the impact and control of IT, scientific developments, medical advances, and the impacts of climate change are all likely to be felt in a similar manner to the countries of Europe. We will be more able to direct resources to mitigate and control these impacts in a grouping with the EU. It will always harder, more expensive and less in our control on our own.
There are whole swathes of the economy which might benefit from rejoining the EU. We’ve all heard of the difficulties in exporting to the EU for fisher people, farmers and exporters. Many small businesses cannot afford to export to the EU. All would benefit from having full access to the EU’S market. The EU too would benefit from having access to British specialities.
UK music has led the world. This is much less so now as musicians need access to cheap travel and a big market like the EU to grow from a local band to one that can top world charts. Students of all ages could enjoy free access to the museums of the EU and in-depth access to the cultures within the EU. Schools within the UK would have a greater pool of potential language teachers. The police could work in concert across the whole of the UK and the EU in order to fight crime and corruption. There are extremely useful live and updated databases only available to full EU members as well as being able to coordinate in fighting those who are responsible for crime including those who benefit from the Channel crossings. When another pandemic strikes, working in concert would facilitate a rapid response and the funding necessary. A grouping of 500 million people has clout in the world. One of 67 million has much less.
Peter Corr, organiser of the National Rejoin March had this to say:
“”The UK rejoining the EU is clearly all positive, but even if we began the process today, it’s a number of years, three at an incredible bare minimum, before we will actually be back. So, the longer politicians wait to pull that lever, the more unnecessary pain they inflict on our country and us, the people. Join us on Saturday 28 Sept 2024 in London for the third National Rejoin March to ask our new government what they’re waiting for.””
Finally, and most tellingly all polls show that most Brits recognise these issues and would be willing to join the EU. Holding this wish back has killed the careers of many politicians and is likely to continue to do so. As the youth continue to support a new push to join the EU this can only increase the costs to those politicians who would like King Canute try to halt the tide.
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