Even if you drink copious amounts of gin, recent climate reports from both the UK and around the world are pretty sobering. From saturated soil bogging down local farmers to droughts in foreign lands that impact our quintessentially English cup of tea, whichever way you look at it, we’re staring down the barrel of a Pringles tube towards serious food insecurity issues. Scientists modelling how climate might impact us struggle to make clear predictions as Earth’s systems are so incredibly complex that attempting to make detailed, accurate local forecasts may as well use haruspicy, the practice of reading the entrails of an animal to divine the future.
Will it, won’t it?
I’m pretty certain most people don’t lie awake in the night wondering if, or even when, civilization will collapse. I’d put the responsibility for kick-starting my overanxious attitude to life on Earth at the feet of my old Geography teacher. Back in the 1980s when studying societies for A’ Level Human Geography she taught us about J-shaped population growth curves. The concept suggests populations grow exponentially in environments with unlimited resources but the rapid increase can lead to a population crash when resources become depleted, highlighting the unsustainable nature of unchecked growth. Why can I remember quotes from Thomas Malthus’ ‘An Essay on the Principle of Population’ from 1798 for over 37 years but I can’t remember to pick up oat milk on the way home from school?
Critics of the J-shaped curve argue that it oversimplifies real-world population dynamics by ignoring environmental factors like disease, famine, and competition or human interventions such as technological advancements or social policies such as China’s one-child limit. Apparently, a more realistic model is an S-shaped curve, which includes a phase where growth slows as the population reaches its environment’s carrying capacity.
Overpopulation or overconsumption?
For most of human history, there were less than a million of us spread across the globe. As recently as 12,000 years ago, there were only four million people. The one-billion mark was broken in the early 1800s, then two billion people in the early 1900s. In 2025 increased life expectancy from advances in living conditions make each of us one of 8.2 billion. The growth curve is not considered truly exponential as the actual growth rate has declined since the 60s so the shape is more of a very steep S. Based on UN projections the population will peak around 2084 at about 10.3 billion, and then start a slow decline.
My anxiety was somewhat vindicated by reading ‘Societal collapse: A literature review’ by Danilo Brozović in Futures, Volume 145, 2023. He examined 361 studies and 73 books on societal collapses and concluded what must happen to avoid today’s world imploding is both disarmingly simple and a daunting challenge: ‘We need dramatic social and technological changes’. We’re in such a wicked knot, maybe we are now heading for an L-shaped curve.
It isn’t really overpopulation that is the root cause of our problems. If eight billion people lived a very basic lifestyle we could probably thrive for long periods of time. Our real issue is still overconsumption, particularly in the global north where we are using resources absolutely unsustainably leading to a collapse in biodiversity and food security. We’ve chosen Amazon over the Amazon and Apple over apples.
Warning systems
Climate change poses significant risks to human populations, but if, or when, it will cause a complete collapse is an enigma. Vulnerable communities already experience exposure to increasing climate hazards and people are dying from climate impacts but there is little consensus on how many will die or how quickly. Our story makes a great melodrama.
On our complex planet, it’s not even the threat of the consequences of climate change, we also have epidemics and pandemics, cybersecurity threats, communications infrastructure failure, energy outages, military conflict, radiation hazards and terrorism to contend with. Preparedness in society can help mitigate risk and our Nordic neighbours have proactively released new advice on preparing for various incidents and emergency conditions. Unfortunately it’s difficult to migrate to Sweden, Norway and Finland or even anywhere in Europe now so let’s assume we’re staying in the UK. Hooray for Blighty!
Grab bag to go
A grab bag is not a meal deal from your local supermarket, it’s a portable kit containing essential items needed for survival if you have to leave home quickly. A well packed bag could countain bottled water, packaged foods such as protein bars, a battery-operated radio, a torch, batteries, essential medicines, hygiene supplies, a small amount of cash, a whistle, ID such as a passport, a notepad with pen/pencil, local maps, a first aid kit, sleeping bag and a basic tool set. If nothing else, that’s a handy wish list for your next birthday or Christmas present from your loved ones.
Hubster and I haven’t got to the point where we’ve packed a grab bag, as no one wants to be eating 4 year old out of date snack bars but we do know where to find most of the stuff. The Scout motto is ‘Be Prepared.’ Hubster was never a scout but his family motto is ‘Never unprepared’ and he’s a demon at strategy.
Preparations on the smallholding
Hubster has, however, accused me of recklessly stockpiling flour. Admittedly, even though we use it to make bread every other day, he does have a point. I’ve just checked and there are 33 x 1.5kg bags in the storeroom which I purchased in bulk last year when it was announced UK cereal crops were down 21% due to poor weather.
We have all purpose flour, strong plain flour, type 00 pasta flour, wholewheat flour, spelt flour, mixed seed flour, rye flour, almond flour, cornflour and even some garam flour which is perfect for making onion bhajis. I’ve just been through to check the data stamps and we have 4 months before any of the best before dates are reached but probably 12 months worth of stock. Fortunately it’s all sealed in dry, relatively airtight boxes. He should be pleased that we don’t have lots of self-raising flour. It doesn’t store well and means I’m not baking cakes, even if I run out of baking powder, at least I can still make brioche. Hat tip to you Marie Antoinette!
We have well-stocked racking of tinned foods and are mainly vegetarian but we eat the odd chicken on occasion and we have eggs. We don’t keep animals, as sheep find a new way to die every day and pigs are the masters of escape, but in an emergency we might be able to barter with a nearby farmer for a bit of meat in return for potatoes, kale and cauliflower.
We could probably sustain ourselves for weeks especially with Hubster’s knowledge of survival skills such as first aid, fire starting and gardening. We also have the equipment to provide power and set up water filtration systems. If all goes to rat shit, providing no one physically threatens us, we can probably take care of each other without relying too much on external help… although no one is volunteering to be the dentist, which is the one threat that scares me, toothache can be debilitating!
Resilience in schools
When we talk about prepping in school it’s usually in the remit of prepping for exams. However, a school should prepare their students for the challenges ahead as best as possible. Last week, fifty children were emergency evacuated from a primary school in Lincolnshire when it was cut off by floodwater. We could focus on increasing resilience so young people can face life’s challenges with a positive mindset, leveraging their self-awareness to navigate difficulties, and managing their emotions effectively to maintain balance under stress. If we’re serious about safeguarding then surely this should be given the same amount of emphasis as the ABCs and 123s.
Just imagine, with some planning, schools could become hubs with workshops and seminars for students, parents, and community members to learn sustainable practices and plan for the future. We could collaborate with local environmental organisations to provide students with hands-on project based learning experiences and volunteer opportunities. We could develop emergency plans for storms or heatwaves and have trained mental health support teams. We could maintain green spaces around the school to promote biodiversity and provide food. We could… but Ofsted don’t monitor any of that, there’s virtually no funding and many educational buildings are already crumbling; the majority of schools just aren’t really resilient at all.
National planning
In the UK most of us received a test warning text a couple of years ago and some areas received one for Storm Bert last November. If you go looking for it there is a website hardly anyone knows about, and there are Local Resilience Forums which publish information about risks in your area.
The UK was considered one of the best prepared nations during the Cold War. In 2023 it released its third National Adaptation Plan (NAP3), which outlines actions to address climate risks. Despite their efforts, the UK’s official climate advisors, the Climate Change Committee, have criticised the government for not acting quickly enough and emphasise urgent and comprehensive measures to build resilience. Is our government waiting for the situation to get really bad before starting their preparations in earnest? If so, the UK’s motto might be Benjamin Franklin’s ‘Fail to prepare, prepare to fail’.
Note to self: Find out how long pickled beetroot lasts. We still have stocks from 2022 but, apart from Hubster, no one likes beetroot so he might still be eating it in 2032.
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