Hubster has been full of joy this week. He’s been training AI models of societal collapse. Apparently there is reasonable evidence that climate-induced food shortages have a 30% chance of resulting in severe famine by 2050 and up to 5 billion people dying by 2100.
Meanwhile I’ve got tonight’s dinner to make and a lesson on Hooke’s Law to plan for tomorrow. Sometimes you have to manage life’s immediate priorities rather than actually making plans or delivering climate initiatives for a livable future. As systems collapse I’m sure the Y8s will appreciate their understanding of Hooke’s Law and, at the age of around 38 in 2050, will be able to regurgitate that “it is a law of elasticity which states that the size of the deformation is directly proportional to the deforming force or load” whilst they pick up their ration packs or scavenge for drinkable water.
COPs
You might have noticed that the 29th International Climate Conference of the Parties (COP29) is ongoing in Azerbaijan this week. At the first UN Climate COP meeting in 1995, global concentrations of CO2 were 360 parts per million (ppm) and a mandate was agreed which required parties to begin talks to reduce emissions with specific deadlines and objectives. Twenty nine years later, we’re up to 427ppm of CO2 with levels still going up. No wonder folk are switching off from climate news.
The 12-month period ending in May 2024 averaged 1.63°C above pre-industrial levels. Scientists are stating we have ‘temporarily exceeded’ the agreed 1.5°C target… despite my slightly manic laughter, I’m sure it’s all fine and the temperatures will go right back down soon enough.
COP29 in Azerbaijan
Globally there are escalating climate and humanitarian crises so it should be no surprise that COP29 is being hosted by an authoritarian petrostate with a poor human rights record. It’s also not at all astounding that a senior Azerbaijan official has been secretly videoed using his role to arrange a meeting to discuss potential fossil fuel deals. Whitewash and greenwash may abound at these events but the physics doesn’t lie and ultimately the facts won’t wash either.
There are some parts of the COP process that are valuable but on a bus in Glasgow at COP26 I sat next to a US negotiator, it was his 15th COP and he was pretty demoralised. He said that the people protesting in the street had a bigger impact that those around the table.
So, should we abandon COPs? They still provide a platform for global cooperation, dialogue, and negotiation on climate action between governments, scientists, NGOs, and activists. If we stop discussions then it’s every country for themselves and many will give up trying to reduce emissions. Imagine a school with no staff meetings, action plans or strategy. It might be great at first but eventually chaos would ensue.
Robbers
Around 50,000 delegates are expected to participate in COP29 with almost all countries represented to some degree. In addition, over 1,700 coal, oil and gas lobbyists have been granted access to the climate talks in Baku. Alarmingly, fossil fuel-linked lobbyists outnumber the delegations of almost every country.
Lobbyists push for measures that favour the fossil fuel industry, such as promoting carbon capture and storage over more substantial emission reductions. This undermines the primary goal of the conferences, which is to achieve meaningful climate action. The lobbyists are robbing our chances of a livable planet in the name of profit.
Extreme weather supercharged by global heating cost £1.5 trillion over the last 10 years, almost half in the USA with losses of nearly half a trillion dollars over the past 24 months alone. This may sound astonishing, but it’s going to get far worse as our planet is heating up at a faster rate than at any time in the geological record. We’re just frogs in a pot now.
Let’s also not forget that the fossil fuel industry is largely behind air pollution in cities and plastic pollution in our rivers and seas… Big Oil is robbing us of a livable planet alongside receiving astronomical financial profits and subsidies in return. Feckingunbelievable and feckingunforgivable too.
MOCK COP
To support the pupils in school to understand why the COP process is so challenging, we’ve been running a mock version of a COP meeting. Each KS3 class has been given a different nation to represent. The students rapidly got into the spirit of roleplay. They did their homework, researching their country’s climate strategy, predicted consequences from global heating and identified their demands for climate action. They made national flags to decorate their classrooms and learned how to greet someone in the language. They became global citizens, developing empathy through education.
Okay, maybe I’m looking at this with rose-tinted glasses. Admittedly there were a couple of issues with declarations of military coups and talk of building border walls or flooding the classrooms representing low-lying nations. Nonetheless, the general gist of their negotiations were as follows:
9M identified China produces the most energy from climate-warming fossil fuels and accounts for about 30% of the world’s annual carbon emissions. They pointed out China is also responsible for the most manufacturing due to offshoring and that they have invested heavily in renewable energy. The class stated that Beijing rejects calls for it to contribute to climate finance for developing countries as they retain the developing country designation in UN negotiations.
7L were delighted to have the USA as it meant they had to swiftly change their presentation following the election. The USA is the world’s second largest emitter, and largest historic emitter of greenhouse gas emissions. The Year 7s giggled as they stated Trump’s victory has reduced the chance of a strong deal on a new global finance target. They said green energy is a “scam” and delighted in pontificating that the president elect’s intention is to “drill baby, drill” making him sound like a child mass murderer. They do not agree to climate finance.
8G informed everyone that the UK has an ambitious finance goal, but were unclear how much we can contribute from our debt-strained budget. Pupil R told everyone that Keir Starmer has stated an 81% reduction in emissions by 2035 but ‘it won’t make changes that impact our lifestyles’. The 12 year olds noted that it’s impossible to get to Net-Zero without significant changes, including less car driving, less meat and less flying. If he was a ‘leader’ he would lead the effort by making the necessary changes himself.
Nigeria 8R presented some of the issues hitting the African continent including fatal flooding in East Africa and dire heatwaves in the Sahel. They demanded climate finance but no one seemed to be listening. Maybe it was because 8R were playing drumming music by Babatunde Olatunji on volume 11 to set the scene.
Bangladesh is one of the least developed countries group which contains 45 nations that are also highly vulnerable to climate change but have contributed little to it. They asked for significant funding from developed countries. They also want more money to flow into the loss and damage fund. Their description of suffering and plea for help elicited some sympathy from the other nations and there were some murmurings that a few quid might be found.
The Marshall Islands are pushing for aggressive emissions-cutting targets. Based on the fact that rising sea levels are likely to doom low lying islands in the Pacific, the Headteacher sent Zebedee the school wellbeing dog to be the mascot of 7P. If nothing else, they’ll get lots of snuggles as they realise they are sinking beneath the waves.
Cop
We had to call the police into school last week as the recently replaced polytunnel had been vandalised yet again. It’s enough to make me throw down my trowel. It’s the third time the plastic has been ripped but this time we’ve actually found the culprit!
Delightful Pupil E asked if she could show me something she had seen on SnapChat. They had managed to get a screen grab of a post by a student in another school saying ‘I slashed their school polytunnel and pissed all over the carrits’. He’d added a laughing emoji. I asked Pupil E to show the evidence to the Headteacher. If nothing else, his English teacher should have a discussion with him on the importance of accurate spelling.
I was grateful it wasn’t one of my own past or present students. Maybe if society invested in more youth projects then teenagers wouldn’t feel the need to go around being eejits. We drenched the carrots and everything else with plenty of water and hopefully the nutrients in the saboteur’s urine will just make them grow bigger as it can be a good fertiliser containing nutrients like nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Ideally it should be diluted with water (usually at a ratio of 1:10) to avoid harming plants. We won’t pick them for a month or two to be on the safe site.
Note to self: Remember to fill the jerry cans for the winter. We try not to use fossil fuels but with increasing storm intensity likely to bring down power lines it’s always a good idea to have some fuel in store for the emergency petrol gerry. Decarbonising is a very wicked problem!
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