Ten years after the Brexit referendum, successive opinion polls indicate that well over 60% of those expressing an opinion (i.e. discounting the Don’t Knows) say they would support rejoining the EU, and this figure is slowly but steadily rising. Contrary to what many politicians expected, the public did not rally behind Brexit once it had happened.
This is not just due to former Remain voters pointing out that the referendum was won on the basis of a pack of lies by Farage, Johnson and others – it is also due to a growing number of Leave voters who are discovering that:
– Brexit bears no resemblance to what was promised;
– it has damaged the economy to the extent that GDP is, according to the Chancellor, up to 8% smaller than it would have been, which in turn means a loss of tax revenue for the government of up to £100billion a year – a figure that dwarfs the current dilemmas about finding an extra £2bn here or £3bn there;
– it has created extra bureaucracy, red tape and inconvenience for UK citizens trading with or travelling to our neighbouring countries;
– it has made it more difficult to cooperate with our European neighbours on a very wide and diverse range of matters dealt with multilaterally within the EU, including medical research, mutual access to police data bases, identifying and handling dangerous chemicals, trade sanctions, student exchanges, mutual recognition of qualifications, and much else.
A different geopolitical situation
On top of that, the geopolitical situation is now very different to ten years ago, with a militarily aggressive Russia, an unreliable and dangerous USA, and a more assertive China. As a consequence, European countries are increasingly aware of their shared interests and values. Other non-EU European countries are applying to join the EU, including all the western Balkan countries, Ukraine and Moldova. Iceland is holding a referendum in August on doing likewise and even in Norway, the foreign minister has called for a new debate in Norway about joining.
The EU is considering a fast-track accession for Ukraine, and several leaders of EU countries from across the political and geographic spectrum (such as Pedro Sanchez of Spain, Alexander Stubb of Finland, Donald Tusk of Poland and Peter Magyar, the new Hungarian PM), have said that they would welcome Britain rejoining the EU. Stubb even came to London to make the case in a Chatham House lecture.
It could happen fairly quickly
In such circumstances, any negotiation for UK accession to the EU could, unlike the current piecemeal “cherry-picking” approach, proceed relatively quickly, given that, as a former Member State, the UK is still aligned with most EU rules. It is worth recalling that when Finland applied to join, negotiations took just two years, as it was similarly already aligned with much EU legislation through the EEA.
The EU’s starting point in the negotiations may well be that the UK should commit to joining the euro, but we should note that there are now five EU member states that are not in the euro and show no intention of joining, so there is in practice a degree of flexibility.
Recognising that migration to Britain is a concern for many voters, we should note that most migration to Britain is from outside the EU and is therefore a matter for national, not EU, regulation (except for an important detail regarding asylum seekers – the EU “Dublin” agreement allows Member States to return asylum seekers to the first EU country they entered, hence the fact that there were no small boat crossings of the channel when we were in the EU). By contrast, internal EU Freedom of Movement is numerically much smaller, is reciprocal, is conditional on finding a job or being self-sufficient, is often temporary and has declined as eastern European countries such as Poland have caught up economically.
Having regard to all of the above and given the damage Brexit has caused to Britain’s economy and to its geopolitical interests, rejoining the EU should be seen as a realistic proposition.
* Dr Richard Corbett CBE was a Member of the European Parliament for Yorkshire & Humber and was the last leader of the Labour Party MEPs.
