There has been much debate about the recent Caerphilly result. It certainly wasn’t good for Labour. The blow can be softened a bit by the fact that there was undoubtably tactical voting for Plaid to keep Reform UK out, but it is still dire in a seat which Labour won in 2024 with 38% of the vote to 11% and third place in the by-election.
But that is not all of it. The Labour Party is in trouble in other ways too. Membership is dropping, and various local parties from Kent to Durham are finding it difficult to attract people to do the organising jobs such as secretary and agent. This does not bode well for the local elections next year if there is no one to organise the campaigns or knock on doors.
Losing confidence
The membership is ageing, and many young activists are attracted to the Greens with their young charismatic leader. But something else is happening too. I attended a lecture the other week about the beginnings of Christianity in this country. In a stimulating lecture, Dr Gittos observed that the Roman Empire and its belief systems did not simply collapse because of military defeat, but it also lost confidence in itself and its old belief systems. People wanted a change, and we can even see this in the way they dressed. The rise of Christianity was part of this change. I cannot help thinking something similar is happening now. People are losing confidence in our traditional institutions such as political parties and churches, and are wanting something different. There have been big changes in society. We no longer have the close-knit communities and large organisations which lent themselves to spawning groups to represent them. Instead, we have a much more individualistic society. This would have happened whatever else was going on.
The Labour Party
Where does this leave political parties? The Labour Party has overreacted from the disorganised period under Corbyn and instead put the emphasis on organisation without clear beliefs. Its members are people with strong beliefs who do not take kindly to being slotted into a machine. The Labour Party must be seen to have strong values which hold it together. I was impressed by Wes Streeting’s strong moral commitment to the NHS at Conference. A Labour government must have both principle and competence, and in many ways, it has neither at the moment. Steve Reed’s approach to building more housing offers hope.
There are two issues though which need to be solved or nothing else will be possible. One is illegal immigration, and the other is the economy. Since our current systems seem unable to cope with illegal immigration, the government needs to set up a task force of people with a track record of delivery to produce a solution quickly that works. The Welfare State was established due to Beveridge working outside government to produce a blueprint which certainly worked. Traditional government procedures seem unable to produce a solution. Regarding the economy, I sympathise with the veteran economic commentator, Hamish MacRae, who noted shrewdly that if you keep saying how terrible everything is, then it is no wonder no one wants to invest here. The government needs to stick to its commitments and will suffer badly if it goes back on promises not to raise basic taxes. The answer is to be honest with people and say that the government did not anticipate the war in Ukraine, and the need to raise defence spending, so the best and fairest thing to do is to impose an extra emergency defence levy and not renege on the promise not to raise basic taxes. Then we need some real investment, particularly in the North, to get the economy moving. Other problems such as the disturbing rise in mental health problems amongst young people could be similarly addressed by appointing a commission to find a solution, rather than continually worrying about it but not actually doing anything.
Things look bad, but Labour has to pick itself up, remember it is a party based on values, and make it clear it is putting them into practice. Remember, competence and principle will win.
