It is only a year ago that Reform secured almost 10% of the votes in the mayoral election, putting up a candidate who did not seem very interested and did very little grassroots campaigning. Things have changed a bit since then. Reform has received considerable donations from rich backers. Richard Tice, the chair, has donated £500,000 and the climate sceptic Terence Mordant £200,000. They have set up over 330 new branches and are now attempting to contest every council seat. Whereas in the past they appeared to be a bit shambolic, with individual candidates sounding off and then having to be disowned, now there is strong party discipline. Look what happened to one of their MPs, Robert Lowe, the MP for Great Yarmouth. He was expelled for alleged “victimisation, constant criticisms and discriminatory behaviour” to staff, but he also had the temerity to criticise Nigel Farage.
They are going to be a powerful force in the coming local elections. But what do they actually stand for? They are being careful to make their policies short, sharp and clear. There is “Freeze immigration and stop the boats”, “Scrap Net Zero to cut your energy bills” and “Reduce Waste and Cut your taxes,” They are very careful to avoid any racist statements, although my experience in the People’s Vote campaign of 2019 was that concern about immigration often had racist undertones.
It would be interesting to know what their take, as an avowedly nationalist and patriotic party, is on Nigel Farage’s friendship with Donald Trump and admiration for Vladimir Putin, although Farage has recently made efforts not to associate himself with any Ukraine settlement that benefits Putin. I imagine they hope they do not have to raise these issues in a local election campaign.
Everyone is in favour of reducing waste, but not everyone wants to scrap Net Zero, but I notice the Tories are now moving towards this position too. The issue which does bind Reform supporters together is immigration, and this sometimes attracts members of ethnic minorities who have already settled here.
Who votes for Reform?
It is interesting to look at the sort of people who vote for Reform. The organisation Hope Not Hate, which campaigns against far-right groups, has done extensive polling about people who have voted for Reform in the past. They identified 4000 people who had voted for Reform, and broke them down into the following categories: “working class right wingers” (22%), “radical young men” (12%), moderate interventionists (people who believe in an element of state intervention in society) (19%), Older authoritarian right wingers (27%), and Traditional Conservatives (19%). It is interesting that while all groups are concerned about immigration, both radical young men and older authoritarian right wingers were concerned about climate issues, not against net zero. Moderate interventionalists and the older authoritarian right believed in state ownership and state regulation, whereas radical young men and traditional conservatives certainly did not.
Immigration
Reform would therefore find it difficult to propose a complete policy manifesto on issues other then controlling immigration. As climate policies become more salient with the effects of climate breakdown such as storms and floods becoming more obvious, Reform would have to modify their anti-net zero stance. The Labour government and Ed Miliband in particular have a good story to tell on green energy and should tell it more loudly.
This analysis makes it easier to challenge Reform by pointing out their policy problems, but I do not think it will stop their support in the coming elections. Incumbent governments always get a kicking in the first set of local elections in their term, and this government is facing considerable problems, made worse by Trump’s erratic behaviour. People are fed up, expecting things to improve after the disasters of the Conservative years, and this does not seem to be happening. Improvements in the NHS and pensions are being overshadowed by the problems caused by Putin and Trump. People do not notice that the government is making a considerable number of investments which will result in more jobs for people in the long run.
The problem of immigration remains intractable, and this is where Reform will seek support. The problem of the boats will get worse as the weather gets better. It is only by working together with other European countries that we can really get a grip on the problem, and Reform does not want to do that. If they ever got anywhere near power they might have to.
I am worried that Labour may have to take it on the chin in these coming elections, and see Reform make some gains. They do not seem to have any platform for local government, and do not appear to seek to obtain overall control but simply be a disruptive minority. It is unlikely other parties will want to form alliances with them to run councils properly, so expect some chaos ahead.
Most of immigration is legal, and is due to the NHS, Hospitality and Care sectors needing workers, and universities recruiting overseas students to balance their books. Until we can train our own workforce properly and fund higher education adequately, the demand will be there. Reform is a protest vote, a response to people being fed up with the ongoing problems we face, but does not seem to be providing any clear answers. The country’s problems demand patient long term solutions. Voting Reform will not solve them.
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