Big things are happening in North East politics right now with big upsets predicted to happen in local authorities like Newcastle and Sunderland on 7 May. But, as if acting as a prelude to the big political upsets, Cramlington has delivered an upset to Reform UK when, on the 16 April, it chose to reject the party in a by-election.
The ward in question, Cramlington South West, was gained by the Conservatives having previously been won by Reform UK at the Northumberland County Council elections of 2025. The Conservative candidate, Neil Graham, got 34.2% of the vote (278 votes) while Reform’s Bridget Byrne got 26.1% of the vote (212 votes). Labour’s candidate, Lynne Robinson, got 23% of the vote (187 votes), the Green Party’s Alex Phimister got 14.3% of the vote (116 votes), independent candidate Dawn Furness got 1.6% of the vote (13 votes) and the candidate for the Liberal Democrats, Nick Cott, got 0.9% of the vote (7 votes). Graham won the seat with a majority of 8.1% (66 votes). The turnout was 26.9% (813 votes).
Rejection of Reform
Since their explosive electoral breakthrough last year in numerous local elections, Reform has been struggling to keep up the momentum. While they’re still in first place in national opinion polls and predicted to do well in the upcoming local elections across England, it must be noted that they are slipping in the national polls, falling short in the councils they control and are losing councillors in Northumberland left, right and centre. Starting with 23 councillors on Northumberland County Council after last year’s elections, they now sit at just 19. The loss of the other three Reform councillors is down to their expulsion from the party in October last year.
Conservative comeback?
Many have written the Conservative Party off as a credible force in UK politics after the battering it took in the 2024 general election and the subsequent rise of Reform on their rightward flank. They might not be as finished as the country thinks, however, and Northumberland goes some way to show it.
Not only did Neil Graham win Cramlington South West, he won it with an 11.2% swing from Reform UK to the Conservatives. His party’s vote share increased by 9% and he received 103 more votes than he did when standing in 2025. This cannot be ignored as, despite it being a local council by-election and not a parliamentary one, the result shows that more people are willing to listen to the Conservatives and give them another chance. And, if a hundred now, how many more in the future?
Labour’s lament
The 2025 election for Northumberland County Council was a brutal and punishing one for the Labour Party. After failing to win back control of the council from the Conservatives in 2021, Labour had their sights set on becoming the governing party of Northumberland in the 2025 election. But it was not to be as Labour lost 8.1% of their vote share and 11 seats overall, leaving them with only eight councillors.
With the party hoping to turn things around in Cramlington South West, things did not go well as Labour continued on the downward trajectory, losing 5.8% of their vote share. Labour councillor Liz Dunn said of the result “obviously it is not the result we hoped for”.
Is the Green Party going places?
116 votes, 14.3%. Compared to recent victories, like the South Jesmond by-election last year, where the Greens have stormed to victory, you would be forgiven for not thinking much of this result. That would be a mistake, however, as it shows how the Green Party is increasing in Northumberland.
Cramlington South West is a new seat, contested for the first time in the 2025 election. At the time, there was no Green Party candidate on the ballot paper and zero votes recorded for them as a result. Now, Alex Phimister has stood and recorded 116 votes, a jump of over a hundred from nothing. That’s not something to be ignored. Moreover, 14.3% is more than double the amount needed to retain a deposit in a parliamentary by-election, meaning that Phimister has started on a strong foundation. It should also be noted, as well, that Alex outpolled the Liberal Democrats by quite a margin, the Liberal Democrats being a once strong party in Northumberland and the third biggest party across the UK in terms of seats in parliament. Cramlington has rejected Reform soundly with a substantial 11.2% swing against Nigel Farage’s party. But this doesn’t necessarily mean a rejection of the right-wing as the Conservatives have swooped in to take the seat, leaving left-leaning parties out in the cold. Labour is seemingly showing no signs of improvement in their local fortunes, however, the Green Party have made a start in securing support locally. Now, as all eyes drift to the local elections across the rest of North East, will the region see the predicted rise of Reform and replacement of Labour by the Greens, or will surprises like the Conservative routing of Reform be in store on 7 May?
