In the wake of what the Conservatives managed to retain, are they more of a threat than we think?
There is much for any progressive, left-winger or centrist to be happy about with these recent elections. The Tories took an absolute hammering and progressive parties made gains. According to polling expert John Curtice, “the Conservatives remain in deep electoral trouble”.
But two things caught my eye in the North East, two things which have caused me concern.
What was up for election?
On the 2 May, England saw elections for regional mayors, Police and Crime Commissioners and some local councils across the country.
In the North East, there were two Mayoral elections; one for the North East and one for Tees Valley with local elections in Newcastle-upon-Tyne, Gateshead, North Tyneside, South Tyneside, Sunderland and Hartlepool. Police and Crime Commissioner elections were also held in Northumbria, Durham and Cleveland.
Premature celebration?
Victories for Labour across all the local authorities up for election, as well as the North East Metro Mayor and all three Police and Crime Commissioner elections bode well for the party. The results are certainly something to celebrate. But two things attracted my attention in the midst of all the results, two things I found alarming.
Tees Valley voted Conservative. Yes, that’s right. Once again, a region in Labour’s red wall voted for the Conservatives. Every single local authority in the mayoral region voted for Rishi Sunak’s party, giving the impression of a region-wide endorsement.
There was also the election of Newcastle’s first Conservative councillor in 32 years. I remember a conversation in the city on the day where I referred to the absence of Tory councillors in Newcastle as a “record to be proud of”. Yet, after the polls had closed, the record was broken.
The words of a friend of mine came to me when seeing those Tory results in Tees Valley and the new councillor in Newcastle: “the red wall will come back but very patchy”.
All is not lost
I speak of doom and gloom above, but I can’t forget the national picture. The Conservatives lost 474 councillors, 10 police and crime commissioners and one mayor across England. The party also suffered a crushing defeat in the Blackpool South parliamentary by-election which saw Labour take the seat from them with a 26.3% swing.
Polling expert John Curtice said the results were “one of the worst, if not the worst” performances in 40 years.
This, alongside past disastrous by-elections for the Tories and national opinion polls showing Labour consistently lead the Tories by a mile, gives me hope that despite the Tees Valley result and the Tories breaking into Newcastle, fate has the Conservatives heading for the political dustbin.
These election results provide much to be hopeful about. Their terrible results, brought together with awful opinion polling and 11 crushing parliamentary by-election losses in this parliament give the impression that it’s over for them. After 14 years the writing is on the wall.
But the Conservative victory in Tees Valley and the election of a Conservative councillor in Newcastle still gives me cause for concern. Maybe I’m way off the mark here, maybe my anxiety is getting the better of me. But if there are still people in the red wall willing to vote Conservative after 14 years of gruelling government, then I think we need to be prepared for a tough fight.
