Some of us stayed up for it. Most of us woke up to it. A genuine General Election Labour landslide, the like of which has not been seen since Tony Blair’s triumph of 1997.
Just to remind you, the national final scores are:
- Labour 412
- Conservatives 121
- Liberal Democrats 72
- SNP 9
- Sinn Feinn 7
- Reform UK 5
- Greens 4
- Plaid Cymru 4
- DUP 5
- Independents 5
- Traditional Unionist Voice (NI) 1
After the General Election the political map of Tees Valley has turned red again. Labour representation is up from two out of seven MPs to six. The Tories are down from five MPs to one.
So it seems that in this Labour landslide, the party has recovered the Tees Valley section of its Red Wall.
Let’s take a closer look.
In Middlesbrough and Thornaby East (with slightly changed boundaries), the Labour incumbent Andy McDonald kept his seat with 16,238 votes. The Reform UK candidate Patrick Seargeant came second with 7,046 votes pushing Conservative Kiran Fothergill into third place with 6,174.
In Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland, the sitting Tory MP Simon Clarke with 16,254 votes was narrowly beaten by Labour’s Luke Myers who had 16, 468. Coming third was Liberal Democrat Jemma Joy with 2,032.
In Redcar (slightly expanded from 2019), Tory Jacob Young MP was shown the door by Labour’s Anna Turley, the local MP before she lost to Young in 2019. This time, Turley won with 15,663 votes to Young’s 12,340. Coming third was John Davies of Reform UK with 7,216.
Stockton North’s Labour MP Alex Cunningham stood down at this election. His seat was held by Labour’s Chris McDonald who won with 17,128 votes over Reform UK’s 9189. The Tory Niall Innes came third with 8,028.
Up in Hartlepool, the Tory grande dame of a 2021 by-election, Jill Mortimer lost her seat to Labour’s Jonathan Brash. He won with 16,414 votes. Second place went to Reform UK’s Amanda Napper with 8,716 votes.
Mortimer was relegated to third place, with 7,767 votes.
If you’re wondering if Reform split the Conservative campaign in Hartlepool, the two parties’ votes combined were 69 more than Labour’s.
In Darlington, Conservative newcomer Peter Gibson lost his seat (14,323 votes) to Labour’s Lola McEvoy with 16,621. Reform UK’s Michael Walker came third with 6,852 votes.
Lastly, Stockton West’s Tory MP Matt Vickers kept his seat with 20,372 votes against Labour Joe Dancey’s 18,233. Coming in third was Steve Matthews of Reform UK polling at 6,833.
What do the numbers tell us?
Apart from the Labour wins, what do the numbers show us? Firstly, the rise of Reform UK, splitting the vote on the right to create a Tory loss, and occasionally pushing the Conservatives into third place.
We also see the LibDems having what seems to be a bad day, with polling at between 1,000 and 2,000 across the region. But while tough on the candidates, this could be a result of tactical voting to get the Tories out. The LibDems more than made up for these losses in returning 72 MPs nationally to the new parliament.
Carol Vorderman’s website advised on tactical voting based on postcode. On Twitter/X she posted:
“c.1.75 MILLION voter postcodes typed into our website stopthetories.vote for yr tactical vote”
Labour also withdrew campaigning from seats where the LibDems had a better chance of dislodging a Tory MP.
The generally poor showing for the Greens (mostly less than 2,000) could also indicate tactical voting. Building up a slow but steady presence on local councils will pay off eventually: their time is yet to come.
Did Labour win?
Was this an election for Labour or against the Conservatives? Sir John Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, has commented that Tory popularity fell behind Labour in the opinion polls after two scandals: Partygate and the Liz Truss catastrophic Budget. After these displays of corruption and incompetence, the Tories never recovered.
The Tories lost. But did Labour win? They harvested just 34% of the vote yet returned a landslide with canny, targeted campaigning. It was Reform UK that defeated the Tories.
Reform UK is merely a name change from the Brexit Party, which withheld candidates from Tory constituencies in the 2019 General Election. Now we are seeing their power in splitting the Tory vote and undermining their campaign. But it was Labour that reaped the benefit.
So after an election more anti-Tory than pro-Labour, it’s more important than ever that Labour shows a clear commitment to change in its early days.
It’s unfortunate then that Starmer in his first press conference failed to commit to scrapping the two-child benefit cap, an issue close to people’s hearts in Tees Valley where Ayresome ward in Middlesbrough has an 84% child poverty rate, the worst in England.
In stressing the need for growth, Starmer has overlooked the need for demand (ie money) to stimulate local economic activity.
Long ago, Thatcher’s guru Milton Friedman suggested dropping dollar bills from a helicopter to trigger reflation. In theory.
The “Helicopter Money” theory was later used in reality by Sunak when employers were paid grants during Covid – that was to keep the economy afloat.
The argument for the cap is that benefits for children discourage their parents from working – but many people on benefits are already in work. A rise in benefits payments would generate new local spending, giving an immediate boost to the micro economy.
The six Tees Valley Labour MPs wouldn’t be alone if they lobby Starmer over the cap. They’d be supported by other Labour MPs in marginalised regions, plus Independents, Greens, Plaid Cymru and the SNP. And also by the 72 LibDem MPs who committed to scrapping the cap in their election manifesto.
In addition many in Tees Valley see as a priority bringing in the National Audit Office to investigate the activities of Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen. The cost for that would be minimal.
What might spur Starmer to action is when he realises that nothing- not even a Red Wall – lasts forever. All support is conditional: nothing should be taken for granted.
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Nothing beside remains..
(Percy Bysshe Shelley)
