The latest statistics on migration, released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in November, showed a net migration of 672,000 in the year ending in June 2023.
Since Brexit non-EU nationals have replaced EU citizens as the main group of immigrants, whilst net migration into the UK has increased.
Net migration is in part affected by international crises. However, the 83,000 people who came to the UK in the past year on humanitarian routes (from Ukraine, Hong-Kong, and Afghanistan), and the asylum-seekers crossing the Channel on small boats, account for a small proportion of the net migration.
Most immigrants come to the UK to study or to work.
Foreign students make a critical financial contribution to UK universities and most of them leave the UK within five years.
According to the Conservative MP Tory Henry Smith, immigrants “put intolerable pressure on housing, transportation and public services”. However, the ONS statistics show that a big proportion of immigrants with a work VISA are employed by the NHS or the social care sector. They are part of the solution, rather than a problem, given the number of vacancies in these sectors.
Some Conservative MPs are in disarray. They had argued that Brexit would reduce migration and campaigned during the 2019 election with a promise to reduce migration. They struggle to come to terms with reality: migration has not decreased and is mostly necessary and beneficial.
Ageing populations
Both the UK and other European countries are facing a demographic challenge with decreasing birth-rates and aging populations. In the UK the proportion of those aged 65 or older will increase from 18% in 2016 to more than 24% in 2042.
Demographic change matters because working people pay the bulk of taxes and pension contributions, which support public spending and many pension schemes.
The aging of a population can be measured using the “old-age dependency ratio”, defined as the number of individuals aged 65 and over in relation to those of working age (aged 20 to 64). There are only two strategies that can be used to cope with the burden of an increasing “old-age dependency ratio”: increasing the retirement age and immigration.
Changes to the state pension age, and similar changes to other pension schemes, are the main strategy to attenuate the burden of an aging population. However, this strategy cannot entirely solve the problem.
Many of us have looked forward to retirement as a time when we could pursue our own interests, do voluntary work, and look after older relatives or grandchildren: not all of us will respond to incentives aimed at making us retire at an older age.
Furthermore, as we get older an increasing proportion of us is no longer in good health and able to work. We cannot increase the retirement age without more vigorous public health policies to make sure that “healthy life expectancy” also increases. Healthy life expectancy is the average number of years that a person lives in good health.
Immigration is necessary as a complement to policies aimed at increasing the retirement age. Immigration can be used to fill workforce gaps in sectors like NHS, social care and hospitality. Anti-migration populists are simply in denial of reality.
Sunak and anti-immigration rhetoric
Rishi Sunak seems to be in a state of two minds. As the son of migrants, he is an example of how migrants can contribute and rise to the top jobs. Recently, he praised ‘highly skilled’ immigrant business chiefs at an investment summit.
Frequently, though, Sunak has pandered to the populist right-wing of his own party and he recently claimed that the UK is at risk of being overwhelmed by migrants. He seems to think that anti-migration rhetoric can win him votes.
Although the right-wing of the Conservative Party is obsessed by migration, it is much more likely that the next election will be decided by the cost-of-living crisis and the poor state of the public services.
Recent opinion polls do indeed show that the cost of living crisis, the NHS and climate change are more important issues for voters than the number of asylum-seekers crossing the Channel.
Anti-migration rhetoric may not save Sunak from election defeat.
