Political commentators like me usually write a reflection on the past year at this time, or look ahead to the coming one. There is a difference of course between writing about what you would like to happen, and what you think actually will happen. Anyone who tries to predict the future is unwise, but I will try and make a few observations.
There are governments which can list considerable achievements but they are generally acknowledged as bad ones. Lord North lost the American colonies in 1783 because of the general incompetence and inefficiency of the British state, and David Cameron plunged the country into an unnecessary slump by agreeing to a referendum on EU membership in 2013. But there are governments which can list reforms which they made which have lasted. I could list Earl Grey and his successor Lord Melbourne, who between them passed the Reform Act, and later the Poor Law and began the process of state education. Then there was Attlee in 1945 who not only established the NHS, but pushed through a large housing programme and also helped establish NATO. Mrs Thatcher should also be on the list, even if, like me you don’t like what she did. She upended the NHS, sold council houses and privatised industries.
HM Government July 2024 – present
On the present evidence it does not look as if the present government will be on this list. It is not that there is not much to be done. It is just that the government gives an impression of weakness, incompetence and poor political judgement. I am not saying things are not being done. Ed Miliband at Energy and Steve Reed at housing have begun the task of tackling the major problems in their areas, and Shabana Mahmood seems to be getting a grip on illegal immigration. John Healey is a safe pair of hands at defence at a difficult time. But overall, there is an impression is of weakness and confusion, and that is what will influence how people vote.
An example springs to mind of political ineptitude: the problems in the hospitality sector. Relief from rates was provided during Covid, but was reduced in April 2025. Pubs are suffering, so Rachel Reeves announces a reduction in business rates but not until next year. Meanwhile pubs are going to the wall now. That is the sort of ‘own goal’ I am talking about.
The formidable problems confronting government
The problems this country faces are massive. They cannot all be blamed on the previous government. There is a demographic problem. An ageing population means more older people, who tend to need more health support, and fewer young people to provide the necessary taxes.
Our system has sold young people short in my opinion. I am no spring chicken and compared to the opportunities I had for universities and employment, today’s young people are treated badly. Older people who have worked all their lives naturally feel a sense of entitlement to health and financial benefits, but everyone knows some, such as the ‘triple lock’ on pensions, are simply unsustainable.
To continue to be viable the NHS has to push through reforms which will divert resources into the community, to making people healthier and supporting them if they are ill or disabled, rather than expensively looking after them in hospital. Longer term the whole welfare system needs to be reformed or it will become unsustainable, and politicians know this.
Added to all this we have the prospect of war in Europe, and Putin’s Russia throwing considerable resources into attempts to expand its territory. Attlee faced the destruction caused by World War II and Stalin and China’s aggression in Europe and Korea. But he still managed to achieve the great things I listed above. He had American support, which we no longer have, but he also had determination and drive to get things done.
The next three years
This government has a big majority and does not have to face another election for three years. It needs strong and inspirational leadership. I am not arguing for a new leader. I am fed up with labour politicians filling up news space saying how good they are and then professing loyalty to Keir Starmer. No doubt if there had been a newspaper in Ancient Rome Brutus and Cassius would have been proclaiming their loyalty to Julius Caesar.
There is plenty to be done and all members of the Government need to get on with it. My hope for 2026 is that this government will think some of its policies through a bit better, and then drive them forward. This government still has time to become one of our great reforming governments. It needs to political will to do it.
