In his novel 1984, George Orwell imagines the world split into three blocs: East Asia (China), Oceania (America and Britain) and Eurasia (Russia and Europe). Other parts of the world are permanently fought over. His idea was that a war economy enabled dictatorship, keeping the blocs permanently at war over disputed territories such as India or parts of Africa.
Orwell’s 1984 was published in 1949. Many feared that Stalin would overrun Europe, and that Britain would be so indebted to America that it would be virtually absorbed. China was emerging from a long period of Western dominance and exploitation and beginning to be an actor on the world stage.
Orwell’s world and ours
Seen 77 years later, Orwell’s ideas seem very prescient. Many commentators now talk about three power blocs in the modern world: China, Europe and America. Russia is an important player, but lacks a substantial, diversified industrial base and advanced manufacturing at scale. It spends a considerable amount on defence relative to gross domestic product. Other states also devote large shares of their resources to the military without thereby becoming major global powers.
The fuss about Keir Starmer’s visit to China encourages us to think a little about Britain’s political future, and to take the debate away from what might happen in forthcoming local elections towards how we see ourselves in the future. It seems there are two reasons why countries are aggressive and seek to expand their influence.
Resources and prestige
One is the need for natural resources. The other is the desire of rulers for prestige and reputation. Often the two are intertwined. Despite Trump’s erratic and inconsistent behaviour, it is possible to see some logic in his policies. He is motivated, it is true, by his desire for a reputation as a great president, and by resentment that predecessors such as Barack Obama received a Nobel Peace Prize and he did not. But he is also concerned about securing access to natural resources for America. He wants to make sure the country has sufficient access to oil, and he wants the rare earth minerals which are essential for modern electronic technology. Many of his actions can be understood in this light.
Similarly, China does not have enough oil for its own needs and relies heavily on coal, but it does have access to rare earth minerals, which are essential for the modern digital economy. China is very advanced in technologies which do not depend on oil, such as electric cars and solar power, partly because it has to be. It too is motivated by non-economic reasons. China was humiliated by Western powers in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, who occupied some of its major cities, and seeks to rebuild its reputation as a great country. The desire to bring Taiwan under its control can be seen through this lens.
Britain, Europe and diminished influence
Where does this leave Europe and that offshore island which is us? We had an empire once, and it is still somehow present in our folk memory. I have encountered people in my political activities who genuinely ask, “We used to be an important power. Why can we not be one now?” As an island, we have not been invaded since 1066, and people are aware that we managed to see invaders off in Napoleonic times and during the Second World War. This probably makes us feel more militarily important than we really are. In reality, many of us find it difficult to accept our now diminished status in the world.
European countries had empires too, but most of them have lost them in conflict and have had their territories invaded. Perhaps this makes them a little more realistic about their position in the world.
