There is little argument that Reform UK was the main winner of the 2026 local elections in May. However, does that mean those areas that voted Reform have few progressive voters, and can Reform be beaten in the future?
Compass research
Research by the progressive organisation Compass has revealed that although Reform took over a number of North East councils in May, including Sunderland, Gateshead and South Tyneside, its vote was often beaten by the so-called progressive vote, for the Greens, Labour and Lib Dems combined, which was split, letting Reform in.
So, what happened here in the North East – and what lessons can we learn from the results?
Newcastle
We start our survey in Newcastle, which has been largely Labour or Lib-Dem controlled since the Second World War, but which saw Labour winning only two seats out of the 78 available on the present council on Thursday 7 May. In the event, Newcastle ended up as an almost three-way tie, with the one Conservative councillor losing his seat and 73 of the 78 seats on the council being shared almost equally between the Lib Dems, the Greens and Reform UK.
In the end, the Lib Dems won 25 seats, the Greens and Reform UK 24 seats each. Consequently, Reform UK were just two seats short of being the biggest party and two seats short of gaining exactly one-third of the seats. However, this happened with Reform UK winning only 24% of the votes on the day.
Sunderland
Meanwhile, in Sunderland – which again had been a Labour council for many years – Reform did take control, as Labour won a meagre five seats. Reform UK won a large majority of seats, winning 58 out of the 75 seats up for grabs. However, this was achieved on only 41% of the vote in Sunderland on 7 May.
Gateshead
Back in Tyneside, another Labour council was won by Reform UK in Gateshead. Here, Labour held onto 12 seats, but Reform UK won 38 of the 66 seats, giving them an overall majority of ten. However, this majority of seats was won with only 37% of the vote.
South Tyneside
In the neighbouring council of South Tyneside, Reform won a huge majority of the seats, winning 41 of the 54 seats contested on 7 May. By way of comparison, the Labour Party, which used to hold just about every seat on South Tyneside council, had just one councillor returned.
Again however, when you look at the vote, the picture is not as straightforward as it seems. Despite winning a huge majority of seats, Reform UK actually gained just under 40% of the votes on 7 May.
North Tyneside
North Tyneside was a different kind of election to the four we’ve seen already in Tyne and Wear, as only a third of the seats were up for election – as is the tradition. Consequently, Labour still hold the council, but on 7 May, Reform UK did win 11 of the 20 seats that were contested. They achieved this with only a little over 32% of the vote.
Hartlepool
In Hartlepool, Reform UK won 15 of the seats available, but there are no figures about how this translated into votes.
Individual wards
When one digs a little deeper into the statistics, it then becomes even clearer just what Compass calls ‘progressive tragedies’ really are.
Birtley South was won by Sandra Myra Pickering. In this ward, however, the majority who voted for the Greens, Labour or the Lib Dems was 412 more than the Reform UK vote.
Similarly, in Kenton in north west Newcastle, Reform won one of the three seats, but the progressive majority was as high as 901, which did see two Labour councillors returned, the only two in the entire city.
In North Tyneside, the Wallsend Central seat was won by Richard Julian Oliver for Reform UK, but the progressive vote was as many as 623 higher. That vote, however, was split between a number of parties.
Over in South Tyneside, Reform UK won 3 seats in the Monkton ward in Jarrow, even though there was a progressive majority of over 200.
Finally, in the Deptford and Hendon ward in Sunderland, Reform UK won all three seats, despite there being a progressive majority of over 500.
These are just some of the examples of what are known as ‘progressive tragedies’ from the five electoral areas in Tyne and Wear that held local elections on 7 May.
In Sunderland there were ten such seats, which made the difference between Reform UK winning the council and not doing so. In Gateshead there were as many as twelve, ‘progressive tragedy’ seats, without which Reform UK wouldn’t have come anywhere near taking control of Gateshead Council. In South Tyneside, despite the large Reform UK majority on the council, as many as 18 of their 41 seats were won in ‘progressive tragedy’ wards. Without these councillors, Reform UK would have only 23 of the 54 seats on South Tyneside Council.
Can we build a good society?
These results make it clear that the majority of people throughout Tyne and Wear do not want Reform UK to be running their councils. However, as long as the so-called ‘progressive vote’ is split between different parties, then this trend of Reform taking power may well continue.
People need to think carefully about who to vote for at elections, but perhaps parties need to think carefully as well, about a number of questions: can we build a better tomorrow? Can we build an environmentally sustainable social democracy, underpinned by strong liberal values? Can we build a good society?
