The news is full of the fact that Reform is rising in the polls and may well catch up with Labour. Metropolitan news outlets tend to dismiss this, arguing that the threat will go away once Labour’s pro-growth policies have a chance to work. If we analyse Reform’s policies some of them are ill thought-out, and some, such as privatising the NHS would be distinctly unpopular if they were given wider publicity.
The problem is, I do not believe that many people who say they will support Farage have examined the policies in detail, and the party seems happy to amend them if it needs to. Polling indicates that a significant proportion of those who say they will vote for Reform also support closer links with Europe for example, whereas Reform argues that Brexit has not been done properly.
The reason seems to me that current politics seems dismal, not offering much prospect of improvement, while their direct experience is of food price inflation continuing and other costs such as insurance increasing. There is the prospect of significant council rate rises in April while services appear to decline. Reform’s politics are lively, and seem to give some hope, even if it is based on unrealistic proposals. People do not read the small print. Whether you like it or not, Farage is charismatic. Just as Labour received a large vote in 2024 because people were fed up with the Tories, Reform benefits now because people are fed up with the government, and the Tories do not seem to be offering any alternative.
Immigration
Reform makes immigration a big issue. Voters are ready to blame recent immigrants for failings in the NHS for example, even though if it was not for immigrants the service would collapse. There is another issue too. Many traditional communities in the North East are not used to ethnic minorities, unlike larger more cosmopolitan cities, and the sudden arrival of people from other cultures does cause disruption. Many of these people come or are sent here because there is available housing, often of a very poor standard. It is easy to blame new arrivals for the poor condition of the place, even if the new arrivals are a symptom of the problem, rather than a cause.
The government’s immediate response is for Rachel Reeves to announce policies which will stimulate economic growth, and for Yvette Cooper to announce a reduction in immigration. Most immigration is legal, although the small boats attract much publicity, but reducing it will be difficult without knock-on effects to universities, which rely on funds from overseas students, social care and the NHS which reply on overseas workers, and the hospitality trade which does as well.
Schemes to encourage economic growth
Rachel Reeves has authorised schemes which she things will produce rapid economic growth. They are proposals which have been there for some time. The two major ones, a third runway at Heathrow and the Oxford-Milton Keynes- Cambridge corridor are in the south of England, and the third, the redevelopment of the Old Trafford site in Manchester is in the North, but a long way from the North East. Rachel is confident they will encourage investment, particularly the first two.
Neither of these policies will produce results quickly. Replacing jobs now taken by immigrants will take time. People have to be trained, and the conditions in the positions themselves will need to be improved. One of the reasons local people do not want to be care workers is that conditions are not very good. Local people are not keen to take seasonal jobs in tourist destinations, but young people from abroad might regard it as an opportunity to see another country. Proposals to expand London Airport will cause a large amount of local opposition and are probably undesirable environmentally in any case. It would be better expanding regional airports away from London, so less traffic had to go through the central hub, and this would benefit areas in other parts of the country.
Yes, there is to be substantial investment in Manchester, and this has been hailed as helping the north. Somebody needs to point out to Rachel Reeves that Manchester is only part of the north. It is difficult not to sympathise with Ian Lavery, as reported in the Journal, that “there was not so much for the North East”
Taking on Reform
If Reform is to be countered in this part of the world, people need to see some direct benefit quickly. They have already been hit by the withdrawal of the Winter Fuel Allowance, and the accelerated closure of shops because of the National Insurance increase. The Labour Party has to take Reform on, because racism is obnoxious and must be fought, but there has to be real material benefits for people too. The best way to directly help local communities would be to help those local authorities strapped for cash to reduce their rates increases by giving them more resources. People would feel this directly if rate increases were reduced. Local authorities could address other local problems too.
Coupled with minimum wage and pensions going up in April, people would then feel a direct boost to their incomes. Labour needs to tackle Farage’s noxious racism, but it must show immediate evidence that it cares about areas like the North East. People need to see real improvements now.
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