As a former Chairman of South Tees Conservative Association from 2019 to 2022 (actually a ‘federation’ covering three constituencies in the Tees Valley) I experienced the highs and lows of the party in this part of the world. From the stunning general election victory of 2019, which saw the local party add Redcar to our existing seat of Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland, to declining fortunes under the scandal-plagued Boris Johnson, the sheer incompetence of the Truss mal-administration and the slightly more organised, but still very limited, Rishi Sunak.
Throughout that time I witnessed numerous troubling factors at work within the party that have contributed to what looks almost certainly now to be an electoral wipeout on 4 July. Certainly here in the North East, and quite possibly across the UK as a whole. These factors include the chasing of ever more extreme support, the abandonment of competent government for populist showmanship, a declining, ageing and increasingly marginalised membership, unrealistic ambitions, and that most toxic combination of both incompetence and corruption within the party.
So, how did it get to this?
The referendum and Brexit
As in many a good tale a reversal of fortunes can be a compelling narrative device, and in the promise of the referendum on EU membership that brought David Cameron an unexpected election victory in 2015, we can see the origins of the Conservative Party’s current troubles.
Although the aim of this referendum promise was clearly to negate the threat from Nigel Farage and Ukip, Cameron’s failure to secure substantial reform of the UK’s membership terms and subsequent loss of the EU vote set in train a roller coaster ride of Tory fortunes. One that may well see the party, in the end, fall prey to Mr Farage’s attentions.
From the subsequent low point of Theresa May’s inability to force any kind of Brexit deal through the gridlock at Westminster we were rushed headlong to Boris Johnson’s ‘Get Brexit Done’ approach. This did prove popular with voters in 2019 but in turn highlighted his own slapdash, and often dishonest, approach to government as his ‘oven ready’ deal proved anything but.
Locally we saw an influx of more right-wing ‘Ukippy’ members. and increased electoral support both from Leave voters and those simply now sick of the Brexit psychodrama and keen for resolution of any sort. The immediate effect was positive, as shown by the 2019 general election result, but more long term, the chasing of one particular hard-right strand of opinion has alienated more centrist voters and driven the party to ever more dubious policy positions. I say that as a Leave voter myself, rather than a disgruntled Remainer, which I am not.
Full-fat version of right-wing politics
Now in 2024 with the rise of Reform support in the opinion polls it seems the voters the party has courted actually crave the full-fat version of right-wing politics offered by Nigel Farage, and the party risks driving centre ground voters into the arms of Labour or the LibDems. This two-way squeeze threatens to cost the Tories numerous seats to the left without Reform picking up many, if any, seats on the right.
Ironically, this in turn has prompted some in the party (not least my own former colleague Sir Simon Clarke) to call for the return of that great campaigning showman Boris Johnson to the party helm. A view which unfortunately overlooks the very real damage that the chaos and dishonesty inherent in Johnson’s leadership style has done to the party brand. A three-ring circus can indeed be eye-catching and entertaining but it’s clear most voters no longer want their country run like one.
Campaigning deficiency
Party fortunes have also suffered from an ageing membership, which is also often now alienated from the party leadership, given their choice of leader being ejected and replaced by Sunak following those chaotic 49 days of the Truss regime. Given that background, plus the loss of numerous Conservative councillors in the May local elections and truly dreadful poll ratings that suggest a losing battle is being fought, it is not surprising that Conservative activists are reported to be very thin on the ground. This includes, according to my sources, in the important marginal Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland constituency of Simon Clarke.
This campaigning deficiency also won’t be helped by the often incompetent, and sometimes absurdly ambitious, approach of Conservative Party strategists that I witnessed during my time in the party. CCHQ often seems to fight the wrong campaign at the wrong time: from the overly expansive approach in the 2017 general election that lost Theresa May her majority, to an overly cautious approach (once bitten, twice shy?) in the 2019 contest.
Local plans and issues
Locally, party plans for a North East Campaign Team based in offices in Washington, far from the seats actually held by Tory MPs in the south of the region, were dreamt up with a view to building on ‘Red Wall’ successes in 2019 by aiming to take additional seats across Tyne and Wear. A very senior party figure confided in me, to my disbelief, that one long term aim was to take control of Newcastle City Council. In fairness to this aim, in May’s local elections the party did pick up one councillor in Newcastle for the first time in decades. But in doing so it lost all its councillors in Tory held Hartlepool. All of which rather confirmed my fears about this grand strategy.
Finally, and most troublingly, a number of scandals in the party locally suggest that the current Conservative Party is beset by a toxic combination of ineptitude and corruption, and hasn’t just lost its way, but has lost its moral compass.
From the selection of clearly unsuitable candidates without adequate background checks, to the mistreatment of party activists leading to suicide and attempted suicide, to the extremely questionable use of police resources to silence critics both within the party and among its opponents, the Conservative Party in this region has shown itself to be willing to cover up its failings by the use of morally (if not legally) corrupt actions. As such it is a party that I am glad to no longer be a member of, and one that I won’t be supporting in the upcoming general election.
It’s no great leap of imagination to suspect that I won’t be alone in that on July 4th. Nor is it any longer fantasy to suspect that the Conservative Party, that great survivor of British politics, is about to face a genuine threat to its very existence.
If so, certainly from my experience as an insider, that fate will be well deserved.
Lee Holmes was Chairman of South Tees Conservative Association from 2019 to 2022 and is the author of ‘Dark Associations: The Secret Life of the Conservative Party’ available on Amazon Books
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