It is now a week from the general election, and already it seems a long time ago. Much ink has been split in analysis, but some conclusions have emerged from the general hubbub. I did quite a lot of door knocking during the campaign, and the feedback from electors seemed pretty clear to me.
Firstly, people were fed up with the Tory government. It was inefficient, and at times corrupt. Not all its problems were its own fault, admittedly, but high taxes should mean good public services, not bad ones. A procession of Tory ministers appeared all saying it was not their fault – it was Ukraine, Covid or something else. In fact, many experts point to the fact that the problems began with the imposition of austerity after 2010. Public Services, including the NHS, and certainly local government, have been in a mess ever since. Conservative ministers have all tried to put the blame on something or somebody else, oblivious of the fact that they were the government for the last fourteen years.
Enthusiasm for Labour?
But dissatisfaction with the Tories did not necessarily lead to enthusiasm for Labour. As many commentators pointed out, Labour did not gain many more votes than in 2019. Turnout was low at 60% and many Tories either stayed at home or deserted to other parties – Reform or even the Liberal Democrats in some areas. Our electoral system is a very blunt instrument. If you get a reasonable vote evenly distributed across the country as Reform did you will not get many seats. If there is a general feeling for a party, or against another one, our system magnifies it and produces a big majority, as happened with Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair and now Keir Starmer, although their votes do not compare to the number of seats gained. Smaller parties like the LibDems and Greens have learnt how to “game the system” and concentrate their support where they have come second. A Labour Person in Torbay I know voted Liberal just because they were the best chance of getting the Tories out.
A volatile electorate
Which brings me to my real point. The electorate is now very volatile. The sociology I learnt in the 1960s talked about working class people voting Labour and middle class people voting Conservative. Yes, class groups were better organised when we had strong trade unions, and cities were more segregated than they are now. I remember the town where I live, Peterlee had delineated working class (rented) and middle class (owner occupiers) areas back in the 1970s. All that has gone now, which is probably a good thing. I am not sure it was so rigid as the sociologists thought. Back in 1945 Labour had a landslide, but it had evaporated by 1950, even though they still got a big share of the vote.
Nowadays very few people believe in the working class concept and change allegiances very readily. They also use their brains to vote tactically.
Good lessons
Attlee’s Government of 1945 contains some good lessons for Starmer’s new model army. He pushed ahead with radical reforms, not just building the NHS, but in new housing and also the new towns. The country was bankrupt after the war but he still pushed ahead., and his legacy survived him, even after he lost the 1951 election to Churchill. Historians tend to agree that he lost in 1951 because people were fed up with austerity and rationing, and the costs of rearming due to the Korean War added extra burdens to the government.
My advice
Here is my advice, for what it is worth, to the new government. You have the big majority, so push ahead with radical reforms, such as real levelling up, building a green economy, rescuing the NHS, abolishing the two-child cap on child benefit and solving the housing crisis.
History does not repeat itself exactly. Sir Keir has made one big change which most of the people I talk to welcome. That is honesty in public life. We have had so much populist drivel, and even barefaced lies from our governments, coupled with promises they cannot fulfil that people welcome a straight talker, who tells it like it is, and admits things will be difficult. If Starmer continues to do this, then chances are he will win that second term all his supporters want.
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