Reform UK’s stunning victories in England’s council elections, including in the North East, lead to many important outstanding questions for all parts of the region, especially – but not only – Durham and Northumberland, where voting took place on Thursday.
In Durham, where a century of Labour rule was ended four years ago by a coalition of Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Independents, Reform swept all before it, taking 65 of the 98 seats, followed by 14 for the LibDems. Previously all-powerful Labour was reduced to just 4, and there are two Greens, one Conservative and 12 Independents.
In Northumberland no party has an overall majority. On the 69-seat council, the Conservatives have most councillors with 26, followed by 23 for Reform, eight Labour, seven Independents, three LibDems and two Greens.
Durham
Reform now has total power in Durham, within the normal limits of local government. But what will it do with it? That is far from clear. The party’s website provides no policy guidance apart from generalisations. Leader Nigel Farage was a little more specific when the visited Newton Aycliffe in the wake of the victory. He told Bill Edgar of the Local Democracy Reporting Service (LDRS) that a Reform-led county council would scrap working from home and cut spending on climate change and diversity, equity, and inclusion.
“We have got a big political job of work to do – and a big responsibility. We haven’t got a magic wand, but I believe we can govern competently, we can reduce the size of local government and get it back to doing what it’s supposed to do.”
Northumberland
The Conservatives, as the biggest party, face a difficult task in deciding whether to try to run a minority administration or form a coalition, and if the latter – with whom? Only Reform, with 23 seats, is large enough on its own to give it a majority, but it seems unlikely either party would want to form such an alliance. They are locked in a fight to the death – as Robert Shrimsley of the Financial Times puts it – for control of the right in British politics.
A German-style “grand coalition” between centre right and centre left – Tories and Labour, in British terms – seems almost equally unlikely between these two historic rivals and anyway would be one seat short of a majority.
The same applies to possible tie-ups with the seven Independents; and how much they even agree with each other is unknown at this stage. Meanwhile the LibDems and Greens, even if both agreed to join the Conservatives, would not be enough. The Conservatives are meeting this weekend, prior to talks with other parties.
North East Combined Authority
There were no elections for NECA this year; nevertheless the combined authority and its mayor, Kim McGuinness, are not immune from the results. The Reform leader of Durham will be a member of McGuinness’s cabinet, and while only one council leader out of seven, will have an opportunity to be disruptive if so inclined. McGuinness urged the government to “listen to the concerns we are hearing repeatedly on the dootrstep,” Daniel Holland of the LDRS reported.
Tyne & Wear
The only local government election in Tyne & Wear this year was for a borough mayor in North Tyneside, a position which Labour retained with a narrow majority over Reform. But Labour, which runs all five councils in the metropolitan county – Newcastle, Gateshead, North Tyneside, South Tyneside and Sunderland – must be looking forward to next year’s voting with trepidation.
Comment
The history of Reform so far, and of its predecessor UKIP and Brexit parties, has been one of populist protest. It now faces the challenge, particularly in Durham, of delivering tangible improvements in the lives of local people. British politics has been exceptionally volatile in recent years, swinging from Boris Johnson’s 80-seat overall majority for the Conservatives in the 2019 general election to Keir Starmer’s 174-seat win in 2024.
The era of a two-party duopoly between Labour and Conservatives seems to be over, but apart from that it would be a rash commentator who would predict the future direction of British or North East politics.
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