You may see on the news about a small asteroid which may hit Earth in seven years time. There’s a lot of nonsense being spread by both the established media and social media. The BBC report is balanced but the Sky news report is rather silly in its suggestion of using nuclear weapons to deflect the object. And of course, social media is having a field day with attempted humour, uninformed views, and just plain daft comments and conspiracy theories abounding. There’s really not much to worry about.
North East Bylines readers are an astute and intelligent crowd who can see through the hype, but I thought you’d also like to see some more details about this asteroid and its orbit.
The asteroid is called 2024 YR4. It may get an official ‘proper’ name (such as Apophis which was originally designated 2004 MN4) but I think this is unlikely given its small size. The naming convention for such objects is defined by and under the authority of the IAU (International Astronomical Union)
Artist impression of asteroid impact – Picture courtesy of NASA
The object
The object was discovered on 27 December 2024 from an observatory in Rio Hurtado, Chile. An astronomical object’s orbit needs to be deduced by using several (at the very least three) observations; with the error-range of the determined orbit being inversely proportional to the number of observations taken. By the end of January sufficient observations had been taken to confirm it to be an NEO (Near Earth Object) and a PHA (Potentially Hazardous Asteroid). To date 315 distinct observations have been taken so we’re quite sure of its orbit.
The object is defined an Apollo class asteroid (it has an eccentric, elliptical orbit with mean distance from the Sun greater than the Earth’s heliocentric orbital distance, but with a perihelion – closest distance to the Sun – within Earth’s orbit).
It is an Earth-orbit-crossing asteroid and as such will occasionally come close to the Earth. As may to be expected, it was discovered in its recent nearby visit to us (24 December) and its next close approach to us will be on 17 Dec 2028 (when it will pass at a distance of about seven million km).
But its close approach of 22 Dec 2032 is the event which is of media interest. Current calculations indicate that it will miss Earth, passing us at about a distance of ~1500km. Certainly rather close and of some concern. And interestingly, it will approach within ~3000km of the Moon about four hours after its close approach to Earth so that will make for spectacular observations.
However, its Earth impact probability is current 2.3% which although very high for an asteroid impact, is still low. Furthermore, this figure will definitely change. Whereas we are very good at evaluating and determining orbits using gravitational theory, there are several non-gravitational forces which also affect the orbits of such objects. (Solar) Radiation pressure is not one of these; but the Yarkovsky effect certainly is. (An explanation of these, and gravitational theory, is available in my book – the PDF of which is available free of charge – for those who wish to study these further.)
No need to worry
So yes, it is a serious threat. But it is NOT a mass species extinction event sized object. There is no need to worry. If (and it’s still a big if) it does collide with Earth the effect will be localised. Currently it has been assessed as being circa 54 metres in size (this size of asteroid is not spherical) and thus it will likely have an effect similar to the 1908 Tunguska impact. Admittedly this would wipe out a city if it hit one. But again, if an impact were to happen, we are able, and would, calculate where on Earth the asteroid would hit and put in place suitable mitigation plans. (I hope!).
In summary, it’s an interesting astronomical event and could be a small problem, but it is not an extinction level event. The climate crisis is a much greater threat to us. (Ironically, an asteroid impact cools the atmosphere so look on the bright side)
I’m happy to answer any serious questions on any of this; but will ignore flippant or conspiracy-type comments.
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