It is very significant that despite some of his previous protestations, and his obvious desire to get to grips with problems here at home, Andy Burnham’s first overseas visit was to Ukraine. It is also really refreshing for many of us, that instead of pussyfooting about for fear of offending Trump, Burnham has stated clearly that Britain will stand by Ukraine and not be bullied by Russia. Recent events have shown that trying to get into Trump’s good books, as Keir Starmer initially tried to do, ultimately gets you nowhere, and we should follow Mark Carney’s example and stand up to him. That is the only way to stand up to bullies, whether from Russia or America.
The war in Ukraine
There will be threats from Russia, and our security services need to be vigilant, but supporting Ukraine is important, not just as a moral gesture. I think there are other reasons why European countries see reasons for supporting Ukraine. It is not simply if we don’t make a stand against Russia now then they will come for us next. The Ukrainians certainly deserve our support, and Putin’s position is becoming ever more uncertain as the ingenious Ukrainians find ways of attacking Russia.
The war is putting considerable pressure on the Russian economy and may not be sustainable in the long run. Recent history has shown that the simple idea espoused by both Russian and American presidents to bomb weaker but determined adversaries into submission did not work in Vietnam, in Afghanistan for neither Russians nor Americans, and is not working now in Iran.
Nor did it work in London towards the end of World War Two when V2 rockets rained down on London. It is not widely known that more V2s fell on London than Russian rockets have currently fallen on Ukraine.2700 people were killed, and my parents were in the middle of it. The rocket attacks on Kyiv are awful, but Londoners got the same treatment, and it did not make them surrender either. The answer was to destroy the bases they were fired from, which happened either directly by bombing or due to the D-day invasion. Supporters of Ukraine must give them the wherewithal to do the same, and the rockets Andy Burnham has promised the Ukrainians will be a help.
Europe
Back to motives. I think Andy Burnham and his advisers realise what the structure of Europe will be in twenty or so years’ time, when the Ukraine War has been settled. Never mind about the EU and our relationship with it, the two most powerful states in defence terms in Europe will be Poland and Ukraine. Poland currently has 290,000 men and women under arms, and Ukraine 900,000. Compare that with the UK with 150,000. True both France and Britain have nuclear weapons, but in terms of military heft within NATO these two will be major players. Add to that the Ukrainians ingenuity at producing new types of drones and other weapons, and in the future countries will not regard helping Ukraine as doing them a favour but securing vital support against any Russian threat. Provided the current conflict is settled, my feelings are that in a few years a way will be found for Ukraine to join NATO. Finland has now been accepted, despite Russian insistence for a long time that they should remain a neutral country. The famous “Finlandization” doctrine.
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If you study recent American history, you will find that Trump did not invent the doctrine of “America First”. It was Pat Buchanan in the 1990s. Many conservatives supported the idea. Trump just expresses it more crudely. Even with Trump gone, America will want to concern itself more with China and will not be so concerned about Europe. Having a country which is strong militarily like Ukraine in a European alliance will be highly advantageous.
Both Ukraine and Poland are fiercely patriotic, and do not want to be included in any empires, whether Russian or anyone else’s. You just need to look at their history. Poland only became an independent country in the twentieth century. Although the idea of a country had existed for a long time, in recent history it was partitioned between Austria, Prussia and Russia, only becoming an independent country in 1918. Ukraine has had a similar history. Only becoming a fully independent country in 1991, having been partitioned by Austria, Russia and the Ottomans before that, although at various points in its history it was able to maintain its own culture. You only have to look at place names in Ukraine to get some idea of its troubled history. The city of Lviv has had several names, Lemberg, (Austrian), Lwow (Polish), Lvov (Russian) and now Lviv (Ukrainian)
Independence for both countries has been hard won, and they are not likely to give it up easily.
Andy Burnham’s trip to Kyiv was not a waste of time, nor is British support for Ukraine. Although I believe our future lies with Europe, it does not have to be the EU as presently structured, and countries such as Poland and Ukraine will play a more prominent role. We had better start learning more about Eastern European culture, not simply Western European. For example, Copernicus from Poland was just as important an astronomer and scientist as Galileo, but far fewer of us English know much about him. Time we did.
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