As the UK argues over the budget, history is repeating itself abroad. Russia’s war in Ukraine is entering a phase where pressure and political vanity could determine Europe’s future.
There is a great deal of fuss going on at the moment about the budget, concentrating not so much on the merits or otherwise of the actual event, but rather what it signifies for the future of Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer. But at the same time something far more important is going on in the world which could threaten our country, never mind a particular government. I am talking about the war in Ukraine.
Trump’s pursuit of a peace-making legacy
Donald Trump, like many presidents before him, is concerned about his place in history, although “obsessed” might be a better word in his case. The main obstacle to him serving a third term is less likely to be the U.S. Constitution than the frailty of his own body. Critics around him have commented that he is becoming increasingly frail, confusing his words on occasions, and showing signs of slowing down. Just like his predecessor Joe Biden, he is determined not to give in. So he needs to cement his reputation before this term is up. He is a very vain man, and what posterity thinks about him matters a great deal to him. He aspires to be seen as a “peacemaker” and hopefully be awarded a Nobel Prize.
I am not suggesting other politicians are saints. Far from it, but few have seen politics quite so simply in terms of how it will benefit themselves. His much-vaunted efforts at “solving” the Israel/Palestine conflict seem to be coming unstuck, mainly because neither of the main parties, Israel and Hamas really wants to settle on the present terms. So, he has turned his attention to Ukraine. “Settling” this conflict means doing a deal with Vladimir Putin, a notoriously unreliable person to make a deal with.
Any agreement will be seen as rewarding aggression unless Russia simply withdraws and Putin accepts defeat. This would almost certainly mean the end of his regime. At the same time Ukraine ceding territory which they have spilt so much blood to defend, and against the wishes of most of the population would most certainly be seen as a defeat and would likely mean the end of Volodymyr Zelensky’s government. Both sides are locked in an existential struggle, so Trump may find a “deal” much harder than he thinks, however much he tries to bully Ukraine.
The lesson of Finland
I appreciate that I often look for historical parallels, but in Russia’s case there are plenty. From the Crimean War onwards Russia has tried to subjugate surrounding states to create “buffer zones” to protect itself. Successive Czars thought of themselves as the saviours of Mother Russia, a superior civilization to others, and with the Russian Orthodox Church being integrated into government, they claimed a moral superiority too. These traditions were discarded for a period during the revolutionary period, but Stalin soon took them up again, extending Russia’s influence over Eastern Europe after the Second World War. The invasion of Finland in 1939 was another example. The Finns fought back, like the Ukrainians, but had to cede some land and for a period had to accept a non-aligned stance. Now in the face of Russian aggression elsewhere, they have joined NATO.
Ukraine’s future will shape Europe’s stability
The Ukraine War is not just about Ukraine’s border, or the future of the Donbas. Nor is it a case of Putin and Trump trading areas of territory which Trump has probably never heard of just to secure his reputation and legacy. It is about whether people should be allowed to determine their own destiny and way of life and not be bullied by more powerful neighbours. Ukraine is not a perfect country nor Zelensky a perfect leader, but the fact that it is possible to deal with cases of corruption in an open society shows how superior it is to dictatorships like Russia. Britain cannot criticise. We had Michelle Mone, her husband and PPE Medpro.
But Ukraine needs concrete guarantees of its freedom, not unenforceable treaties. The only solution to their continued freedom is to let them join NATO. Putin will have to put up with it, as he reluctantly did with Finland.
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