Tragically some politicians never learn.

Let us hope against hope that US president Trump’s plan (backed, without many publicly-stated reservations, by so many world leaders) will provide long-term peace in Gaza and that it does, despite all the hurdles, result in a just and genuine ‘two state’ solution.

 But the non-magnanimous, dictatorial and arrogant way it is being proposed does not bode well.

 It is as if the deal on offer has been specifically designed to be unacceptable to Hamas (or at least to substantial elements within Hamas) or to be impossible for Hamas to deliver within the timeframes specified.

 But if the US and its British and other supporters are genuinely sincere about wanting peace, they have very foolishly totally ignored the multiple and very consistent lessons of history.

The Treaty of Versailles

 They would, for instance, be wise to bear in mind the terrible errors made at the Treaty of Versailles at the end of the First World War. For it was there that the victorious allies, full of vengeful and vainglorious arrogance, decided to systematically punish and humiliate defeated Germany.  It was utterly counterproductive and, far from reducing German right-wing sentiment and militarism, it was one of the factors which led to the rise of the Nazis and ultimately to World War Two and the Holocaust.

The Cold War

Then, a lifetime later, within a few years of the end of the Cold War, the West treated vanquished Russia in roughly the same ill-advised non-magnanimous arrogant way that the allies had behaved towards defeated Germany at the end of World War One.  And, unsurprisingly, the West’s actions (broken promises, NATO expansion, geopolitical disrespect over Iraq and Libya) gradually helped create eerily similar consequences –  namely the rise in Russia of ethno-nationalism, revanchism, expansionism and Putin’s military aggression.

The Iraq War

 And similarly wrong-headed and counterproductive political action was taken by America and Britain at the end of the 2003 Iraq War.  Instead of being magnanimous, they (and later their anti-Baathist Iraqi allies) opted to remove very large numbers of ordinary rank-and-file members of the pre-war ruling Baath party from their jobs as civil servants, teachers, health workers, etc. Indeed the Americans abolished the entire Iraqi army, thus making all 400,000 soldiers and officers unemployed (and thus extremely resentful). The result of all that was catastrophic.  Much of the country’s administrative system collapsed – and ousted and therefore unemployed army officers and others were consequently driven into the arms of anti-western terrorists, who were only too delighted to welcome them.  It was precisely that arrogant, oppressive and humiliating American policy (in which Britain largely acquiesced) that led to post-war widespread Iraqi alienation and the consequent establishment of the ISIS terrorist group – and that, of course, led to the establishment of Islamic State in eastern Syria and western Iraq and to an accelerated spread of terrorism worldwide, especially in the Middle East and Africa.

Israel and Palestine

Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians over the decades has sadly been equally arrogant, oppressive and humiliating –  and Israel’s increasingly extreme and violent nationalism has tragically led to the rise of equally extreme movements in parts of Palestinian society. The truth is that violence breeds violence – and that oppression and humiliation breeds hatred which in turn produces yet more violence. It’s a tragic vicious circle.

 All the examples above show why the current US plan for Gaza is potentially so flawed.

 Trump’s plan appears to exclude the inhabitants of the Gaza Strip (and indeed Palestinians in general) from being members of the so-called Trump-led ‘Board of Peace’ which, according to the US plan, will govern Gaza.

 It also seems to imply that civilian Hamas members (or presumably even ex-members) are likely to be banned from running or staffing Gaza’s health service, police service and other non-military areas of government. Hamas had (and to an extent still has) a civilian wing (including many civil servants, public service administrators and key public service staff etc) which was and is separate from its military wing. Most of those in the civilian wing of the organisation would not have known that Hamas’ military wing’s 7 October, 2023 terrorist attack on Israel was about to take place.

 The Trump plan has an almost 19th century colonialist feel about it.

 It is quite clearly deliberately biased in favour of Israeli interests and demands –  and there is no firm plan for a genuine ‘two state’ solution.

 What’s more, it totally fails to prevent Israel’s continuing violation of international law in the West Bank – and indeed gives Israel the right to continue occupying parts of Gaza.

 All these aspects of the Trump plan are likely to humiliate and alienate many of Gaza’s inhabitants.

 Every one of these very serious flaws in the plan risk playing directly into the hands of extremists in both Israel and in Palestinian society. The plan is unlikely to prevent Israel from continuing to violate international law in the West Bank, will allow it a continuing oppressive military role in Gaza –  and will almost certainly provoke resistance from Palestinian militants (including terrorists) even if Hamas’ political leadership were to be forced to acquiesce in Trump’s plan.

 The American, British, Israeli and other governments seem to have tragically learned absolutely nothing from Versailles (1919), the end of the Cold War (1991) and the Iraq War (2003).

 And equally sadly, they appear to have also learned nothing from the somewhat more enlightened US, British and French treatment  of vanquished Germany in and after 1945, (ie., the wisdom of The Marshall Plan, the utilisation in local and national administrations of many German civil servants etc [including many rank and file ex members of the Nazi Party], the genuine democratisation of German society and its absorption into post-war Western Europe).

 Trump’s plan is deeply flawed. If it works, it will be despite the flaws – and, of course, the flaws may sadly undermine the plan’s chances of long-term success, even if initial progress is achieved. 

But, if the plan collapses in the short term or fails in the longer term, it will at least in part be a consequence of the arrogant, partisan, ultra-one-sided, illiberal colonialist way it has been conceived.

CLICK HERE TO DONATE TO OUR CROWDFUNDER

HELP US BECOME STRONGER SO THAT WE CAN CONTINUE TO DELIVER POWERFUL CITIZEN JOURNALISM!