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Is the Iranian regime about to fall?

Update on the current situation in Iran

Peter Sagar by Peter Sagar
10-01-2026 11:00
in World News
Reading Time: 7 mins read
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Photo by Yeti studio/Shutterstock.com

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The protests in Iran, which began about the cost of living on 28 December have continued and protestors are now openly calling for regime change and the return of the monarchy.  How close is the Iranian regime to falling after 47 years, what is happening now and what might happen next?

Internet blackout in Iran

It was reported on 8 January that a complete internet blackout had come into effect over Iran that night, as pressure increased on the country’s leadership, with protests over economic conditions spread nationwide.

The internet cut had been first reported by the internet freedom monitor NetBlocks.  It was unclear why the internet cut had happened, but Iranian authorities have been known to shut down the internet in response to protests in the past.

It was further reported that “NetBlocks had reported outages in the western city of Kermanshah earlier in the day, as authorities intensified their crackdown against protesters. The Norway-based NGO Iran Human Rights (IHR) said on Thursday that Iranian security forces had killed at least 45 protesters, including eight children, since the demonstrations began in late December”.

Additionally, it was  reported that NetBlocks had themselves noted that what appeared to be a nationwide blackout had come after “a series of escalating digital censorship measures targeting protests across the country and hinders the public’s right to communicate at a critical moment”.

The following morning 9 January, Netblocks issued an update stating that Iran had by then been offline for 12 hours with “national connectivity flatlining at ~1% of ordinary levels, after authorities imposed a nationwide internet blackout in an attempt to suppress sweeping protests while covering up reports of regime brutality”.

Authorities intensify crackdown on protests

It has also been reported by the Center for Human Rights in Iran that the authorities in Iran had escalated their crackdown on the nationwide protests that had begun on 28 December.  The regime waas said to have killed dozens, including children, by shooting indiscriminately at protesters with live ammunition, carried out violent assaults on hospitals to detain the wounded and arbitrarily arrested thousands of Iranians. All these actions were said to be actions that “amount to crimes against humanity under international law”.

CHROI have found that  more than 27 civilians were killed by gunfire from security forces between 28 December 2025 and 5 January 2026. This figure includes six children under the age of 18. The full number of deaths at the hands of the Iranian regime, is believed to be higher as identities of victims are still being verified.

A large number of protesters in Malekshahi, Ilam Province, were among dozens injured in the protests, when security forces fired directly at demonstrators. As of 6 January 2026, the Human Rights Activists News Agency HRANA had reported that “over 34 people had been killed and over 2000 people had been arbitrarily arrested, a number that has been quickly rising”.

As another sign of a hardening of attitudes towards the protestors by the regime it has also been reported that the supreme leader of had warned that there would be a crackdown on protesters, as tens of thousands marched through the streets of Tehran,  while accusing the protesters of “ruining” the country to gain favour with US President Donald Trump.

Protestors call for regime change in Iran

In another development, it was reported on 9January that while the protests had begun as protests about the economic situation there are signs that the focus is beginning to shift towards demands for regime change in Iran. The protests are said to have become broader anti-government demonstrations, with “chants of ‘Death to the dictator’ – a reference to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – and ‘Long live the shah’ – the late monarch Mohammad Reza Pahlavi – reverberating in some streets”.

Democracy: the only path to healing Iran’s deep wounds

I asked Newcastle-based Iranian artist and activist Parisa Panahi for her views on the latest developments:

“In light of the recent events in Iran, I have never felt more proud of being Iranian. A nation that has endured decades of oppression, injustice, and repression is now standing with courage and awareness, voicing its demands clearly and fearlessly. The people of Iran have long been victims of authoritarian and dictatorial regimes-both during the Pahlavi era and throughout more than four decades of rule by the Islamic Republic.

“Historical amnesia is one of the greatest dangers a society can face. During the Shah’s rule, torture, political repression, and the systematic marginalization of minorities and ethnic groups were undeniable realities. In 1979, Iranians took to the streets demanding freedom and justice, only to witness a revolution that ultimately plunged the country into an even deeper form of authoritarianism.

“Today, after more than forty years of imprisonment, pressure, torture, and institutionalized repression, the Iranian people are asking for something both simple and fundamental: a democratic, people-led government. In my view, no system other than democracy is capable of governing Iran or healing the profound wounds inflicted upon its society. A legitimate government must be chosen by the people, accountable to the people, and governed in the people’s interest.

“Within this context, the rise of monarchist sentiment among certain groups deserves scrutiny. Many supporters of this movement belong either to generations who lived during the Pahlavi era or to younger generations who hold a nostalgic and superficial image of that period. Limited social freedoms of the time have often overshadowed the authoritarian structure and systemic repression of the monarchy.

“Even if Reza Pahlavi were to seek a political role in Iran’s future, I believe that a person who has lived abroad for decades, remained detached from Iran’s internal struggles, built no political party, and assumed no direct responsibility toward the suffering of the people cannot lead a popular movement. Speaking from behind podiums in democratic countries, wearing suits, and issuing occasional statements cannot replace standing shoulder to shoulder with people who risk their lives for freedom.

“In 1979, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi left the country with minimal resistance, handing power to forces whose ideological and religious nature was already evident. Regardless of the personal or medical reasons behind that decision, its consequences for Iran were catastrophic. This raises a critical question: how can trust be placed once again in the same power structure?

“The truth is that much of the support for monarchy today is driven by nostalgia rather than political analysis. A father’s past achievements-real or perceived-do not guarantee a child’s ability to govern a complex and deeply wounded nation. What the Iranian people seek today is not a return to the past, but the construction of a future founded on freedom, justice, and popular sovereignty.

“After decades of suffering, this demand is neither radical nor unrealistic. It is the most basic right of the Iranian people-a right they will, sooner or later, reclaim”.

    Great read!  Let me buy you a coffee.
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Peter Sagar

Peter Sagar

Peter is a teacher, writer and historian who has also been active in human rights work for 35 years. He is particularly interested in how our great human rights history in the North East can help us to be both inspired and enlightened and enable us to face up to the challenges we face today. These challenges include defending the human rights of all people in the region and the country and dealing with the existential crisis that is climate change

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