The American election has been resolved without all the problems which were predicted, and it is a clear result. The Republicans are in a strong position indeed. Trump will not face the same obstacles Biden did. What does this mean for Europe, and in particular the situation in Ukraine?
After initial setbacks in the Kursk area, where Ukrainian troops captured Russian territory, Russia has been making steady advances. It has now retaken half of Kursk, and is making steady progress in the Donetsk region of Eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine and Russia
Both sides are finding it difficult to recruit enough personnel to fight. Russia has brought in troops from North Korea, whereas Ukraine has extended its call up. In the end though Russia will have more troops than the Ukrainians simply because it is a bigger country, and can afford to throw large numbers of troops onto the battlefield without much regard for their safety. The Ukrainians are much cleverer and have invented new types of drones and are developing their own defence industry and have used rockets and drones to chase the Russian Navy out of the Black Sea, they still have a disadvantage in straightforward land battles.
Both sides also are also experiencing difficulties with their economies in sustaining the war. Ukraine has had considerable Western help in keeping its economy going, and Russia is now seeking help from both Iran and North Korea. It is difficult to see how much longer the current situation can continue.
America and Europe
America is their biggest donor, but other European countries, notably Britain and Germany have also made substantial contributions. Germany has a political crisis, but the big worry is that America will now scale back its support and urge Ukraine to seek a settlement with Russia. Putin would probably like a settlement to ease the pressure his country is facing, but he will not want to lose face, and it is likely that unless Ukraine was in a much stronger position he would simply want to freeze existing battlefield front lines. His aggression would have paid off. He would have successfully annexed part of another state.
Would European countries be able to take the burden if America reduced or stopped its support? It is unlikely that they would have enough resources to do so, but they can continue to help Ukraine develop its own industries Many countries, including our own, need to build up their own forces which are depleted because of equipment which has been sent to Ukraine.
But why does it matter? Ukrainians have made it clear their support for the Western values of democracy and freedom and prefer that to the authoritarian system of Russia. Other countries which border on Russia have also expressed their support for Western values. Russia has blatantly interfered in the elections of these countries. A pro-western president, Maia Sandu has secured election in Moldova despite Russian efforts to support a pro-Russian candidate. The pro Europe party was not successful in Georgia, but international observers have reported examples of Russian interference.
Other countries which border Russia, such as Slovakia and Hungary feel it is more worth their while to maintain good relations with Russia, and will not support Ukraine. Turkey tries to be on both sides at once. If Russia were seen to be successful, other countries might try to cosy up to Russia for self-preservation, and Russia would be tempted to interfere in other neighbouring states.
What can be done?
There are two things which could be done.
Firstly, Britain must take the lead in granting permission for Ukraine to use the long range storm shadow missiles against Ukraine. At the moment they can only be used within Ukrainian territory, but if they could strike Russian factories or bases within Russia that would hamper the their war effort. Such a move could put pressure on Russia to reach a settlement more favourable to Ukraine.
Secondly we should encourage the EU to allow Ukraine and Moldova to join. I do not feel that it would be desirable for them to join NATO at the moment. This could be seen by Russia as a provocation, and the West seeking to extend its influence, even though NATO is a defensive alliance. The EU is not a military alliance and does stand for the values that Ukraine wants to embrace.
There is a problem of course. We have left the EU. Keir Starmer has talked about a “reset”, but it has been rather cooly received as there is little he really wants to reset. Having a closer association with the EU would help us with other issues as well, such as dealing with illegal immigration apart from trade benefits. We must go on supporting Ukraine and other Eastern European states who would rather have our values that Russian authoritarianism, but we would be much more able to do it if we had closer relations with the EU. Trump’s election is a signal that Europe needs to work more closely together if we are to stand up for our values of democracy and freedom in a dangerous world.
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