Personally, I detest Donald Trump and his attack dog JD Vance, and find it really deplorable that a man of his morality (or lack of it) should be leader of a powerful country. But he was elected by a majority and we have to ask why. Many Americans may not like him but agree with what he is doing.
The post war order that we have come to accept, where America protected Western Europe and democracy in other parts of the world is only one period in American history. It has been the case while most of us were alive, but it was not always so. There has always been a strong feeling of isolationism in America which has asserted itself at various periods in American history and it seems to be doing so now. Woodrow Wilson (President 1913 to 1921) was an exception and brought America into the First World War following German U boat attacks on international shipping such as the Lusitania, and after the war declared that the “world had to be made safe for democracy”, and nations had a right to self-determination.
Many new states were established following the collapse of the Czarist, Austrian and Ottoman Empires. Wilson went further being instrumental in setting up the League of Nations to protect small nations from being attacked by large ones. Unfortunately, when he arrived back in America, isolationists asserted themselves and the Senate blocked America joining. Wilson has later defeated by Warren Harding who reverted to an isolationist policy.
NATO
America was again reluctant to become engaged in the Second World War, seeing it as primarily a European conflict, and only did so when attacked by Japan. After the War when Russia under the leadership of Joseph Stalin effectively took over many Eastern European states and tried to isolate Berlin that America committed itself to the protection of Europe and helped set up the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). This guaranteed that other members would come to the defence of any member who was attacked. Russia, meanwhile, showed no sign of allowing freedom to Eastern European states, putting down attempts to break free from their control in Hungary and Czechoslovakia. European countries came to rely on America for their defence and reduced their defence spending. Following the end of the Soviet Union in 1991 Eastern European countries regained their freedom and some people began questioning the point of NATO.
Defending democracy, expensive wars and “wokeness”
The doctrine of defending democracy led America into overseas wars in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. These were very expensive, and many queried how successful they were since none of those countries have become democracies as we understand the word.
Many Americans seem to feel that overseas wars are expensive and have achieved little, certainly in the case of Afghanistan. Many also regard the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a European problem which Europe has to solve. There is yet another dimension to the argument, which Trump and Vance have plugged into. American fundamentalists see Europe as decadent and obsessed about “woke” issues such as gay rights and transgender. Putin has made clear his opposition to such rights, clamping down hard on gay rights for example. Some Americans even admire his values more than those of the supposedly decadent Europeans. Concerns about freedom, on which America was founded seem to be taking second place. Not only traditional isolationism but a hard right dislike of minority rights seem to be asserting themselves.
Commentators seem to be agreeing that Trump has abandoned any idea of defending freedom or democracy but is simply doing deals with other powerful countries that suit America’s interests, regardless of what they are like. What is more worrying is that Trump is just a symptom, not a cause, and America may continue to adopt an isolationist stance, whoever the president is.
Ukraine and the rest of Europe
So where does that leave Ukraine, Britain and Europe? Ukraine, for all its faults, has tried to establish a Western style democracy, and Russia wants to reincorporate it into its authoritarian state. Victory here could mean other countries such as Poland or the Baltic states could be next. Russia could then be in a position to pressurise other European countries including ourselves.
European countries are right to anticipate a period of less American involvement in their defence, and this means they have to spend more on their own defence, painful as that might be. Their defence needs to be better coordinated, and procurement rationalised. All countries want to protect their own industries, but many different types of ordnance makes defence less easy to organise. The right body to do this is NATO. The EU is primarily about trade, and does not include all European nations. And if some such as Hungary do not want to be involved then they are free to leave.
The Ukrainians have shown considerable courage, resilience and ingenuity developing new weapons such as drones. They deserve European help. It will take time to replace some American kit if Trump persists in his policies, but it can be done.
Any peace deal has to be guaranteed, and NATO is the best organisation to do it, whatever Russia thinks. Long term we should not rule out Ukraine being allowed to join NATO as Finland and Sweden have done. That would be the best guarantee of their security. If America can assert itself, so can Europe.
